广发期货日评-20250625

Report Summary 1. Core View - The market is influenced by various factors such as international situations, monetary policies, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3]. 2. Summary by Commodity Categories a. Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: With short - term international situation changes and improved macro - situation, the stock index is strongly rising. It is recommended to buy the deeply discounted 09 contracts on dips in the CSI 1000 and sell the 09 call options above 6300 to form a covered combination [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Near the end of the month, the bond market may anticipate the central bank's bond - buying restart. Although there are short - term fluctuations, the overall strong pattern may remain. It is advisable to allocate long positions on adjustments and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and the steepening curve strategy [2]. b. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold is expected to stabilize at $3300 and maintain high - level oscillations. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. Silver is fluctuating in the range of $35.5 - $36.5, and a double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money options on Shanghai silver can be tried [2]. c. Shipping and Industrial Materials - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The EC disk is declining, and the price is weakly oscillating. Unilateral operations should be on hold for now, and attention can be paid to the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2]. - Steel and Iron Ore: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, try shorting on rebounds with the upper pressure level around 720 [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has seen an improvement in trading, and it is recommended to go long on coking coal on dips or long coking coal and short coke. The fourth round of price cuts for coke by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and the price is approaching the phased bottom [2]. d. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Related Products: Due to the decline in geopolitical risk premium, the crude oil disk is weakly operating. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. PX, PTA, and other products are affected by the decline in oil prices and are treated with short - term caution and a bearish attitude [3]. - Other Chemicals: For short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products, different strategies are proposed according to factors such as production reduction expectations and processing fee repair expectations. For example, short - fiber can be treated the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the PF disk can be expanded at a low level [3]. e. Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils: Soybean meal is following the decline of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather speculation. For oils, they are following the decline of crude oil, and for example, P2509 is testing the support at 8200 [3]. - Other Agricultural Products: Different strategies are proposed for various agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc. For example, sugar is traded bearishly on rebounds in the range of 5600 - 5850, and cotton is traded bearishly on rebounds with attention to the pressure level around 13700 [3]. f. Special and New Energy Commodities - Special Commodities: For soda ash, maintain a high - level short - selling strategy on rebounds. For glass, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 950 - 1050 [3]. - New Energy Commodities: For polycrystalline silicon, hold short positions cautiously. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [3].