大越期货原油早报-20250625

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has led to a significant reduction in geopolitical concerns, causing oil prices to largely give back all war premiums and return to the fundamentals. The substantial drawdown in US API crude oil inventories indicates an optimistic performance during the summer consumption peak season. The market will focus on the supply side, as Kazakhstan has stated that it has no plan to cut production, which will test the implementation of OPEC+. In the short term, oil prices will fluctuate at a low level, with a short - term trading range of 505 - 520, and a long - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2508, the fundamentals are neutral as the US air strike only delayed Iran's nuclear capacity by a few months, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has taken effect, Kazakhstan has no plan to cut production, and the Fed may consider interest rate cuts due to potential inflation from tariff hikes. The basis is neutral with spot at par with futures. Inventory data is bullish, with significant draws in US API and EIA inventories. The market trend is bullish as the price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions are bullish as both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions show an increase in long positions. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a trading range of 505 - 520, and a long - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. 2. Recent News - On Tuesday, June 24, after a phone call between Trump and Netanyahu, Israel stopped further military strikes on Iran, and Iran is ready to talk. The US air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities only set back the nuclear program by a few months. Fed Chairman Powell said that tariff hikes this summer may push up inflation, which is a key period for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts, but he is not in a hurry to cut rates. The EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures against the US before the July 9 trade negotiation deadline, and Germany will support tougher measures against the US [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Bearish factors include OPEC+ increasing production for three consecutive months, the continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies, and the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. The short - term market is driven by geopolitical conflicts, and the medium - to - long - term market awaits the summer demand peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all declined, with decreases of - 6.17%, - 6.04%, - 2.86%, and - 9.22% respectively [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all decreased, with decreases of - 11.02%, - 6.04%, - 9.42%, - 8.81%, and - 8.95% respectively [9]. - Inventory Data: US API crude oil inventories decreased by 427.7 million barrels in the week ending June 20, and EIA inventories decreased by 1147.3 million barrels in the week ending June 13. Cushing region inventories decreased by 99.5 million barrels in the week ending June 13. As of June 24, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 402.9 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - As of June 17, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds increased, with the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increasing by 39,107 to 231,048, and the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increasing by 76,253 to 273,175 [3][17][19].