苹果产业日报-20250625

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of June 18, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas across the country was 1.1649 million tons, a decrease of 109,700 tons from the previous week. The sales speed was basically the same as last week but slower compared to the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi decreased, and the destocking speed slowed down. Other fruits' competition and substitution increased, leading to weak apple demand, a slowdown in sales speed, and potential pressure on apple prices. However, the current low inventory still supports prices, and the market will fluctuate in the short - term. Follow - up attention should be paid to bagging conditions [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract was 7,674 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 31; the closing price of the October contract was 7,674 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 31. The position of the main contract was 91,335 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,277, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 4,117 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,631 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia apples (paper - bagged, above 80 first - and second - grade fruit from farmers) was 4.1 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change; the spot price of Gansu Jingning apples (paper - bagged, above 75) was 4.5 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change. The spot price of Shandong Yiyuan apples (paper - bagged, above 75) was 2.6 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change; the spot price of Shaanxi Luochuan apples (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) was 4.2 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area was 1,955.77 thousand hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares, and the national apple output was 51.2851 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6834 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples was 9.59 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.56 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory was 1.1649 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 109,700 tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.16, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi was 0.08, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01. The monthly apple export volume was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly apple export value was 51.525 million US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 25.529 million US dollars. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 2,201,050.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants was 0.9 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 8.5 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 yuan/kg; the weekly fruit wholesale price of pears was 6.72 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the weekly fruit wholesale price of bananas was 6.5 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg; the weekly fruit wholesale price of watermelons was 3.98 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg. The weekly average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong was 10.25, a week - on - week increase of 2.25; the weekly average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong was 14.25, a week - on - week increase of 2.45; the weekly average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong was 22.25, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 16.94%, a week - on - week increase of 1.22%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 16.94%, a week - on - week increase of 1.23% [2] Industry News - On June 25, 2025, the overall apple market in the producing areas showed a stable and weak trend. Merchants preferred to use their own inventory. Affected by quality and price - squeezing by purchasers, the actual transaction price of farmers' apples slightly declined, and transactions were made through bargaining. In the new - season apple situation, the bagging work in the producing areas was coming to an end, and the output problem was becoming clearer. According to market research on the fruit - setting and bagging in the main apple - producing areas in Shaanxi, the fruit - setting and bagging situation this year will not have a particularly large reduction compared to the same period last year, with an expected reduction of 5% - 10% [2]