瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250625

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain abundant while the demand will shrink, leading to continued downward pressure on prices. The basis spread of soda ash has started to converge this week, and the basis convergence trading may continue. The decline of futures prices is expected to slow down. It is recommended to short the main soda ash contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, the supply shows little change with a slight increase in overall production, staying at a low level with obvious signs of rigid - demand production. The industry's overall profit is poor and continues to decline, and the subsequent resumption of production may further weaken. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the demand is expected to further weaken. The basis spread remains within the normal range this week, and the subsequent market trading will be more about policy expectations, with limited rebound height and strength. It is suggested to go long on dips in the short - term and maintain a short - selling mindset on rallies for the medium - to long - term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract is 149 yuan/ton, the position volume is 1,561,404 hands (down 7,874 hands), the net position of the top 20 is - 307,826 (down 34,580), the exchange warehouse receipt is 3,698 tons (down 165 tons), the spread between September and January contracts is 7 (unchanged), and the basis spread is 46 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton) [2]. - Glass: The closing price of the main contract is 1,017 yuan/ton, the position volume is 1,445,375 hands (down 26,628 hands), the net position of the top 20 is - 238,048 (up 7,865), the exchange warehouse receipt is 877 tons (unchanged), the spread between September and January contracts is - 49 (up 2), and the basis spread is 41 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton) [2]. 现货市场 - Soda ash: The price of North China heavy soda is 1,197 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Central China heavy soda is 1,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), East China light soda is 1,285 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Central China light soda is 1,215 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Glass: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1,056 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Central China glass sheets is 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate of soda ash plants is 86.46% (up 1.56%), and the enterprise inventory is 175.59 tons (up 2.92 tons) [2]. - Glass: The weekly operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34% (down 0.08%), the in - production capacity is 15.54 million tons/year (down 0.02 million tons/year), the number of in - production production lines is 223 (down 1), and the enterprise inventory is 6,988.7 ten - thousand weight boxes (up 20.2 ten - thousand weight boxes) [2]. 下游情况 - Real estate: The cumulative value of newly - started area is 23,183.61 million square meters (up 5,347.77 million square meters), and the cumulative value of completed area is 18,385.14 million square meters (up 2,737.29 million square meters) [2]. Industry News - There are multiple news including the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Anti - Japanese War commemorative event, the meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, central bank's MLF operations, diplomatic communications, policy issuances on financial support for consumption, economic promotion in Guangdong, etc. [2]. 观点总结 - Soda ash: Supply is abundant, demand is shrinking, prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to short the main contract on rallies [2]. - Glass: Supply shows little change, demand is weakening, and short - term long on dips and medium - to long - term short on rallies are recommended [2].