瑞银：中国经济展望_数据看中国（2025 年 6 月）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The economic data for May indicates mixed but robust growth, with retail sales increasing by 6.4% YoY, infrastructure investment at 9.3% YoY, and manufacturing FAI growth at 7.8% YoY, although property activity continues to decline [3][5][6] - The report anticipates additional policy support in H2 2025, including a potential 20-30 basis point cut in policy rates and fiscal stimulus of 0.5-1 percentage points of GDP [5][6] - GDP growth is expected to remain resilient at 4.5-5% YoY in Q2 2025, but may decelerate in H2 due to payback of rushed export orders and exhausted fiscal subsidies [6] Activity Indicators - Retail sales growth improved to 6.4% YoY in May from 5.1% YoY in April, driven by trade-in subsidies [109] - Infrastructure investment growth remained robust at 9.3% YoY, while overall fixed asset investment (FAI) growth moderated to 2.9% YoY in May [86][75] - Industrial production growth edged down to 5.8% YoY in May, supported by front-loading of export-related production [97] Property - Property sales growth declined by 3.3% YoY in May, with new starts improving slightly to -19.3% YoY [72] - The report expects property sales, new starts, and investment to decline by 5-10%, 10-15%, and 5-10% respectively in 2025 [72] Fixed Asset Investment - Overall FAI growth moderated from 3.6% YoY in April to 2.9% YoY in May, with infrastructure investment growth at 9.3% YoY [86][75] - Manufacturing investment growth edged down to 7.8% YoY, reflecting weak demand and profits in property-related sectors [86] Industrial Production - Industrial production growth softened from 6.1% YoY in April to 5.8% YoY in May, with value-added growth in communications and electrical equipment remaining robust [97] Consumption - Retail sales of household appliances and communication equipment rose significantly, with trade-in subsidies contributing to the growth [109] - The household savings rate remains above pre-COVID-19 levels, indicating cautious consumer spending [109] Inflation - Headline CPI remained weak at -0.1% YoY in May, with PPI declining further to -3.3% YoY [126] Money and Credit - Credit growth stabilized at 8.7% YoY, with new RMB loans totaling RMB 620 billion in May, weaker than market expectations [142] - The report anticipates continued accommodative monetary policy to support credit growth [154]