Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Palm Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure to weaken in the short - term due to concerns about production recovery and a rapid slowdown in export growth. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are expected to fall further to the 8150 - 8250 yuan range [1]. Soybean Oil - The CBOT soybean oil may rise if the US biodiesel policy is consistent with the proposal; otherwise, it may fall again after a short - term adjustment. In the domestic market, cost support makes traders and oil mills reluctant to lower basis quotes, but the increase in factory soybean oil inventory may lead to a reduction in basis quotes [1]. Corn - In the short - term, corn prices may adjust due to auction expectations, but the decline is limited. In the long - term, the supply is tight, imports are low, and breeding consumption is increasing, so the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. Without new negative factors, the possibility of a sharp decline in sugar prices is small. This week, it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the range of 5650 - 5800 [6]. Meal - The bullish sentiment of US soybeans has been fully traded. With the improvement of weather expectations and the decline in oil prices, the market is weak. Domestic soybean inventory pressure is acceptable, and soybean meal inventory is still low. The short - term trend of soybean meal is not clear, and the decline space is expected to be limited [7]. Cotton - The market driving force is still weak, with the downstream开机 rate decreasing and finished - product inventory increasing. However, the basis of old crops is still relatively strong, and there is still support for cotton prices. In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [10]. Pork - The current breeding profit exists, but market capacity expansion is cautious. The short - term futures market may be strong, but there is a risk of decline for the 09 contract near the delivery date if the live inventory continues to be postponed [13]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively sufficient. It is expected that egg prices will rise slightly and then stabilize this week, and may decline slightly later [17]. Summary by Directory Palm Oil - Price Changes: On June 25, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8490 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of P2509 was 8230 yuan, up 22 yuan or 0.27% from the previous day; the basis was 260 yuan, down 22 yuan or 7.80% from the previous day [1]. - Inventory and Market Outlook: The inventory of palm oil in China is at a certain level. The Malaysian market is affected by production and exports, and the domestic market is expected to decline further [1]. Soybean Oil - Price Changes: On June 25, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8240 yuan, down 20 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7626 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.26% from the previous day; the basis was 614 yuan, down 40 yuan or 6.12% from the previous day [1]. - Policy and Market Impact: The market is concerned about the US biodiesel policy, which will affect the price of CBOT soybean oil. Domestic cost support affects basis quotes [1]. Corn - Price and Related Indicators: The price of corn 2509 in Jinzhou Port decreased by 12 yuan or 0.50% to 2377 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4 yuan or 3.70% to 104 yuan/ton; the import profit increased by 3 yuan or 0.54% to 539 yuan [2]. - Market Situation: Trade merchants are reluctant to sell due to the reduction of remaining grain. Downstream demand is affected by factors such as enterprise maintenance and feed substitution [2]. Sugar - Price and Market Indicators: The price of sugar 2601 was 5577 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.40% from the previous day; the price of sugar 2509 was 5757 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning increased by 30 yuan or 0.50% to 6070 yuan [5]. - Industry Situation: National sugar production and sales have increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has decreased [5]. Meal - Price Changes: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu decreased by 40 yuan or 1.37% to 2880 yuan; the futures price of M2509 decreased by 44 yuan or 1.45% to 2993 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan or 1.96% to 2500 yuan; the futures price of RM2509 decreased by 74 yuan or 2.78% to 2588 yuan [7]. - Market Outlook: The supply rhythm is relatively certain, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. The short - term decline space of soybean meal is expected to be limited [7]. Cotton - Price and Market Indicators: The price of cotton 2509 was 13645 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.26% from the previous day; the price of cotton 2601 was 13625 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 65 yuan or 0.44% to 14832 yuan [10]. - Industry Situation: The downstream开机 rate is decreasing, and the finished - product inventory is increasing, but the basis of old crops is still relatively strong [10]. Pork - Price and Market Indicators: The price of the main pork contract increased by 90 yuan or 14.75% to 700 yuan/ton; the price of the 2507 contract was 13615 yuan, up 0.48% from the previous day; the price of the 2509 contract was 14000 yuan, up 0.43% from the previous day [12]. - Market Outlook: The current breeding profit exists, but capacity expansion is cautious. The short - term futures market may be strong, with potential risks near the delivery date [13]. Eggs - Price and Market Indicators: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3658 yuan/500KG, up 16 yuan or 0.44% from the previous day; the price of the 07 contract was 2848 yuan/500KG, up 29 yuan or 1.03% from the previous day. The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.12 yuan or 4.24% to 2.92 yuan/jin [16]. - Market Outlook: The egg supply is sufficient. Prices are expected to rise slightly, then stabilize, and may decline slightly later [17].
《农产品》日报-20250626
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-26 01:10