《能源化工》日报-20250626

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - LLDPE & PP: PE is expected to fluctuate, while PP is expected to trend downward in the short - term. PP's short - term production is at a high level due to the return of maintenance and smooth new production. PE's basis strengthens after the decline in the futures price, and the import volume in June decreased significantly with a slight increase expected in July. Both are affected by the off - season in demand [2]. - Styrene: The supply - demand balance of styrene may gradually weaken. It is expected to continue to decline in the short - term due to increased supply, weak downstream demand, and geopolitical factors. It should be treated bearishly [7]. - Urea: In the short - term, attention should be paid to export progress, supply - side maintenance, and demand - side changes. It is advisable to consider going long at low prices based on the rebound logic driven by news, but strict stop - losses are required [11]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: For caustic soda, it is recommended to wait and see as it may face further inventory pressure after the return of maintenance devices. For PVC, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a medium - term short - selling strategy due to prominent supply - demand contradictions [39]. - Methanol: The market is affected by the easing of the Iranian situation, with a decline in the futures price and a strengthening basis. Attention should be paid to the actual shipping after the restart of Iranian devices. The inland supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - Polyester Industry Chain: PX, PTA, and other products are expected to fluctuate. For example, PX is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [52]. - Crude Oil: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, lacking a strong trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and capture opportunities in option trading when volatility narrows [56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE & PP - Price Changes: L2601, L2509, PP2509 prices increased slightly, while PP2601 decreased slightly. The basis and spreads of some varieties also changed [2]. - Inventory &开工率: PE enterprise and social inventories decreased, and the device and downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly. PP enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the device开工率 increased, and the downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly [2]. Styrene - Price Changes: The prices of styrene's upstream raw materials, spot, futures, and overseas quotes changed to varying degrees. The import profit decreased significantly [4][5][6]. - 开工率 & Profit: The开工率 of domestic and Asian pure benzene, styrene, and some downstream products changed. The integrated profit of styrene decreased significantly, while the non - integrated profit increased [7]. - Inventory: The inventories of pure benzene ports, styrene ports, and some downstream products changed [7]. Urea - Price Changes: The futures prices of urea contracts increased, and the spreads between contracts changed. The prices of upstream raw materials and spot in different regions also changed [11]. - Position & Volume: The long and short positions of the top 20 traders changed, and the trading volume increased [11]. - Supply & Demand: The daily and weekly production of urea, the开工率 of production enterprises, and the inventory of urea all changed. The inventory of some enterprises decreased [11]. PVC & Caustic Soda - Price Changes: The prices of PVC and caustic soda's futures and spot changed slightly. The export profit of caustic soda increased, while that of PVC decreased [35][36]. - Supply: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and the profit of different production methods changed [37]. - Demand: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries and PVC's downstream products changed [38][39]. Methanol - Price Changes: The futures prices of methanol contracts increased, and the basis and regional spreads changed [49]. - Inventory: The enterprise, social, and port inventories of methanol changed [49]. - 开工率: The upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - Price Changes: The prices of upstream raw materials, polyester products, and their futures and cash flows changed. The spreads and processing fees of some products also changed [52]. - 开工率: The开工率 of different links in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, changed [52]. Crude Oil - Price Changes: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil, as well as the prices and spreads of refined oil products, changed [56]. - 裂解价差: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [56]. - Market Drivers: Oil prices are driven by factors such as inventory changes, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and geopolitical factors. The market is in a multi - empty stalemate [56].