建信期货豆粕日报-20250626

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Research team: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Domestic soybean meal futures contracts: The settlement prices of soybean meal 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased by -1.05%, -1.19%, and -1.27% respectively, with trading volumes of 26,867, 1,342,168, and 77,065, and open interest changes of -18,048, -59,986, and -4,441 respectively [6] - International soybean market: U.S. soybean futures contracts declined, with the main contract at 1045 cents. After a rebound last week, the price turned to consolidation. The biodiesel policy is relatively positive for U.S. soybean crushing, but there is still uncertainty due to an upcoming hearing in early July. U.S. soybean exports are approaching the end of the season, and the market is entering the weather - sensitive period. New - season soybean planting is progressing, with uneven rainfall distribution in the产区, and the overall good - to - excellent rate is at a medium level [6] Operation Suggestions - Short - term: There may be profit - taking pressure on the rebound. For the fourth - quarter contracts, they should be treated with cautious optimism after pullbacks, with risks related to weather improvement and tariff conditions [6] Group 3: Industry News - Imea: From June 16 - 20, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso was 493.39 reais/ton, down from 515.08 reais/ton the previous week. The soybean meal price was 1561.35 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 5,771.88 reais/ton [9] - Argentina: In May, the soybean crushing volume was 3,878,549 tons, soybean oil production was 763,045 tons, and soybean meal production was 2,821,060 tons. As of June 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in factories was 3,515,610 tons, soybean oil inventory was 223,426 tons, and soybean meal inventory was 647,658 tons [9][10] - EU: As of June 22, the 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.76 million tons (vs. 3.41 million tons last year), soybean imports were 13.79 million tons (vs. 12.89 million tons last year), soybean meal imports were 18.88 million tons (vs. 14.93 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 7.16 million tons (vs. 5.59 million tons last year) [10] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price difference between soybean meal 1 - 5, 5 - 9, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the US dollar against the Brazilian real exchange rate, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][15]