建信期货工业硅日报-20250626

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures: The main contract price fluctuated. The Si2509 contract closed at 7,555 yuan/ton, up 1.55%. The trading volume was 504,119 lots, and the open interest was 306,644 lots, with a net increase of 13,217 lots [4] - Spot prices: The spot prices of industrial silicon were stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was also 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 9,000 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - Fundamental improvement was limited. In the third week of June, the output of industrial silicon was 76,600 tons, increasing for four consecutive weeks, and the monthly output exceeded 320,000 tons. Domestic demand remained at 260,000 tons, and monthly exports remained at 50,000 tons. The recent expectation of polysilicon production cuts was disappointed, bringing a marginal increase in demand. The futures warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled and taken out of storage, dropping to 266,300 tons. The spot prices were stable recently, and the sentiment in the commodity market improved. The hourly chart showed a convergent triangular oscillation, and it had not broken through the upper resistance yet. It could continue to be observed, but the weak supply - demand situation limited the rebound height, and the overall trend continued to oscillate [4] Group 3: Market News - On June 25, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 53,263 lots, a net decrease of 307 lots from the previous trading day [5] - According to customs data, in May 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 53,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.48% [5]