大越期货螺卷早报-20250626

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2) Core Views of the Report - Thread Steel: Demand is seasonally rising, inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level, but traders' purchasing willingness remains weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is still in a downward cycle. With a spot price of 3070 and a basis of 94, the national inventory in 35 major cities is 368.75 million tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Considering the weak real - estate market and potential domestic policies, a volatile and bearish approach is recommended [2]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are facing obstacles. With a spot price of 3180 and a basis of 82, the national inventory in 33 major cities is 263.65 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line downward, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. Given the weakening market supply and demand, export obstacles, and potential domestic policies, a volatile and bearish approach is recommended [6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Thread Steel - Likely Positive Factors: Low production and inventory levels, and spot premium [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: The continuous downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand lower than the same period [3]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Likely Positive Factors: Fair demand and spot premium [8]. - Likely Negative Factors: Downstream demand entering the seasonal off - peak season and pessimistic expectations [9]. Other Data - The report also includes data on prices (such as thread steel and hot - rolled coil spot prices, Southeast Asian export prices, Tangshan billet price, domestic scrap steel comprehensive price), various profit indicators (thread steel and hot - rolled coil disk profit, estimated blast furnace profit, estimated electric furnace profit for construction steel), inventory data (social and steel mill inventories for thread steel and hot - rolled coil), consumption data (apparent consumption, consumption - to - inventory ratio for thread steel and hot - rolled coil), building material trading volume, real - estate development investment and sales area, housing construction area data, manufacturing PMI, steel export data, and cement price [10][13][65].