大越期货尿素早报-20250626

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The urea market is currently in a state of shock. International factors lead to a tight supply and rising prices, which have a partial impact on the domestic market. Although agricultural demand has improved, the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the urea market will continue to fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The recent urea futures market has been fluctuating. International supply shortages have caused prices to rise, affecting the domestic market. Supply-side production has reached a multi-year high, and inventory has declined. On the demand side, the compound fertilizer industry's production has decreased, the melamine industry's production has increased, and agricultural demand has improved. The overall supply still significantly exceeds demand, and export policies remain unchanged. The spot price of the delivery product is 1920 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 180, with a premium/discount ratio of 9.4%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 980,000 tons (-218,000 tons), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Market: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, while the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - Main Positions: The net position of the main UR contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong, and agricultural demand has improved, but the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand. Therefore, the UR market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: International prices are strong, and domestic agricultural demand has marginally improved [5]. - Bearish Factors: Production and daily output are at a high level, and inventory is higher than the same period last year [5]. - Main Logic: The main factors influencing the market are international supply and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes - Spot Market: The spot price of the delivery product is 1920, the Shandong spot price is 1930, the Henan spot price is 1920, and the FOB China price is 2548 [6]. - Futures Market: The price of the UR09 contract is 1740 (+24), the price of the UR01 contract is 1697 (+30), and the price of the UR05 contract is 1705 (+19). The basis of the UR09 contract is 180 (-42) [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, urea production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption generally showed an upward trend. Capacity growth rates varied from 8.4% - 15.5%, and consumption growth rates ranged from 0.3% - 17.9% [10].