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大越期货燃料油早报-20250626
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-06-26 02:08

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market supply is expected to remain stable, with the cross - month spread narrowing to the lowest level since January. The expected increase in high - sulfur fuel oil demand during the Middle - East summer peak has not had a substantial impact on supply. The market is currently neutral [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish signal. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased in the week of June 18, also a bullish factor. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is trending upward, which is bullish. However, the main positions in both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [3]. - With the significant decline in crude oil prices and the upcoming negotiation between Iran and Israel, the fuel oil market is under pressure. It is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term. The FU2509 is expected to trade between 2980 - 3030, and the LU2508 between 3680 - 3740 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Asian high - sulfur fuel oil supply is stable, demand is moderate, and the cross - month spread is narrowing. The expected demand increase in the Middle - East has not changed the supply situation [3]. - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 158 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is 78 yuan/ton, with spot premiums over futures [3]. - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of June 18 was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels [3][8]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is trending upward [3]. - Main Positions: High - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short, and short positions are increasing [3]. - Expectation: Crude oil prices are falling, and the negotiation between Iran and Israel restricts the upside of fuel oil. Short - term low - level range - bound trading is expected [3]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Concerns - Bullish Factors: Deterioration of the Middle - East situation and the expected increase in summer power - generation demand [4]. - Bearish Factors: The optimistic demand outlook needs to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia [4]. - Market Drivers: The supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The previous FU main - contract futures price was 3206, and the current price is 3020, a decrease of 186 (5.80%). The previous LU main - contract futures price was 3825, and the current price is 3686, a decrease of 139 (3.63%) [5]. - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 158 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is 78 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory data from April 9 to June 18 shows fluctuations, with a decrease of 22 million barrels in the week of June 18 [8]. 3.4 Spread Data The report presents a graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread from 2021 - 09 - 07 to 2025 - 06 - 07, but no specific numerical analysis of the spread is provided [13]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from April 9 to June 18 shows that the inventory on June 18 was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels compared to the previous week [8].