工业硅期货早报-20250626

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with supply increasing, demand remaining sluggish, and cost support weakening. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 7465 - 7645 [6]. - The polysilicon market has continuous supply increase and declining demand, with overall demand in a state of continuous recession. The 2508 contract is expected to oscillate between 30195 - 31055 [8]. - The main logic for the market is the supply - demand mismatch caused by capacity imbalance, making the downward trend difficult to change. The main influencing factors include cost increases, slow post - holiday demand recovery, and the supply - demand situation of downstream polysilicon [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 81,000 tons, a 2.53% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 71,000 tons, a 13.41% week - on - week decrease. Downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all have high inventory levels [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 is 3972 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On June 25, the spot price of non - oxygen - blown silicon in East China was 8100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 545 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 2.27% week - on - week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 4.32%, and main port inventory decreased by 1.50% [6]. - Disk: The MA20 of the 09 contract is upward, and the futures price is above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. - Expectation: Supply scheduling is increasing, demand recovery is emerging, and cost support is rising. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 7465 - 7645 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output was 24,500 tons, a 2.94% week - on - week increase. The scheduled output for June is expected to be 98,800 tons, a 2.80% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.9 GW, a 1.52% week - on - week decrease. The inventory decreased by 3.10%. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows a downward trend in different degrees [8]. - Cost: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,520 yuan/ton, and the production income is - 20 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On June 25, the price of N - type polysilicon was 34,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 08 contract was 3875 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 262,000 tons, a 4.72% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level in the same period of history [8]. - Disk: The MA20 of the 08 contract is downward, and the futures price is below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position is increasing [8]. - Expectation: Supply scheduling continues to increase, demand in various downstream sectors continues to decline, and cost support remains stable. The 2508 contract is expected to oscillate between 30195 - 31055 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial Silicon Market Data: The report provides detailed data on the prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost of different contracts of industrial silicon, as well as the production, inventory, and profit data of downstream industries such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [15]. - Polysilicon Market Data: It includes data on the prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and profit data of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [17].