大越期货沥青期货早报-20250626

1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - Supply side: In June 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 32.1788%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 537,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.18%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 741,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is below the historical average. The re - paving asphalt开工率 was 30.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.0559%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 was 22.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 45%, a month - on - month increase of 13.00 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 955.93 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 801.07 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventories continue to be depleted. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support weakens. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating in the range of 3539 - 3609 [10]. - Main logic: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, recovery is weak [15]. - Main influencing factors: Bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support; bearish factors are the lack of demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: This week's refinery production reduction eases supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week. The planned production in June 2025 shows an increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year [8]. - Demand: Overall demand is below the historical average, with different trends in the开工率 of various types of asphalt [8]. - Cost: Asphalt processing losses increase, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil weakens, and short - term cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - Expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation of the futures price in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract in the 3539 - 3609 range [10]. - Factors: Bullish factor is the high - level crude oil cost; bearish factors are weak demand and economic recession expectations [13][14]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Base - price trend: Analyzed the base - price trends of Shandong and East China asphalt, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [20]. - Spread analysis - Main contract spread: Analyzed the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts [23]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: Analyzed the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil [25]. - Crude oil cracking spread: Analyzed the cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) [28]. - Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend: Analyzed the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional market price trends: Analyzed the price trend of Shandong re - paving asphalt, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis - Asphalt profit: Analyzed the asphalt profit trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [37]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: Analyzed the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [40]. - Supply side - Shipment volume: Analyzed the weekly shipment volume trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [44]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: Analyzed the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [46]. - Production volume: Analyzed the weekly and monthly production volume trends, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [49]. - Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: Analyzed the price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [53]. - Local refinery asphalt production: Analyzed the asphalt production of local refineries, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [56]. - 开工率: Analyzed the weekly开工率 trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [59]. - Maintenance loss volume estimate: Analyzed the estimated trend of maintenance loss volume, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [61]. - Inventory - Exchange warehouse receipts: Analyzed the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [64]. - Social inventory and factory inventory: Analyzed the trends of social inventory and factory inventory, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [68]. - Factory inventory inventory ratio: Analyzed the factory inventory inventory ratio trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [71]. - Import - export situation - Asphalt export and import trends: Analyzed the export and import trends of asphalt, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [74]. - South Korean asphalt import price difference trend: Analyzed the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [79]. - Demand side - Petroleum coke production: Analyzed the petroleum coke production trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [80]. - Apparent consumption: Analyzed the apparent consumption trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [83]. - Downstream demand - Infrastructure - related demand: Analyzed the trends in highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [86]. - Downstream machinery demand: Analyzed the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the domestic sales trends of excavators, and the sales trends of road rollers [90]. - Asphalt开工率 - Re - paving asphalt开工率: Analyzed the re - paving asphalt开工率 trend, but no specific analysis results are given in the text [95]. - Asphalt开工率 by use: Analyzed the开工率 trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc., but no specific analysis results are given in the text [98]. - Downstream开工情况: Analyzed the开工情况 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, etc., but no specific analysis results are given in the text [99]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Presented the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [104].