碳酸锂期货日报-20250626

Group 1: Report Overview - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures fluctuated strongly, with limited increase compared to the previous day. The spot price center moved slightly up, with electric carbon rising 300 to 60,200. The spot price was still lower than the futures price, and the delivery loss had significantly narrowed, but the exchange warehouse receipts were still decreasing. Attention should be paid to the delivery problem of the 07 contract in the short term [12]. - The prices of Australian ore and lithium mica ore both increased, and the price center of cathode materials also moved up. The price - cut tide in the industry chain had暂缓, and with the improvement of the current macro - environment, the market bullish sentiment was increasing. The short - term stop - falling sign of lithium carbonate was obvious, but due to the high supply and high inventory of lithium carbonate, the rebound space of lithium carbonate futures was expected to be limited [12]. Group 3: Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,311 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 360 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was 59,700 - 60,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 60,200 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 300 yuan/ton. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,100 - 59,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 58,600 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 300 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate spot market continued the pattern of oversupply, and the supply - demand contradiction was still prominent. The market had sufficient tradable goods, and the inventory pressure was not effectively relieved. The demand side had no significant incremental expectation, and downstream cathode material enterprises maintained a cautious procurement strategy, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The lithium carbonate price had approached the industry average cost line, and the market had entered a volatile stage of long - short game. The slight rebound of the futures price had a certain conduction effect on the spot market, driving the transaction center of point - price trading based on the futures price to move up slightly, but the overall market sentiment was still cautious [13]. - The General Office of the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on organizing the 2025 New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season in Thousands of Counties and Towns from July to December 2025. Local governments should implement the policy of trading in old cars for new ones, set up special areas for trading in old cars for new ones in the new energy vehicle consumption season event venues, and launch more marketable new energy vehicle models. They should promote the reform pilot of automobile circulation and consumption, combine the new energy vehicle consumption season activities with the pilot construction work, plan to carry out special promotions and test - drive experiences for intelligent connected new energy vehicles, and promote the commercial application of high - level intelligent driving cars under safe and legal conditions. They should also create diversified post - market consumption scenarios for automobiles and extend the automobile consumption chain [13][14]