建信期货铁矿石日评-20250626

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, steel mills are still in the process of production cuts, but due to their weak willingness to control losses and cut production, and the support of downstream demand under the effect of rush - export, the production cut pace is expected to be tortuous, and the ore price will generally show a weak and volatile state with short - term support [11]. - In the medium and long term, the "terminal demand decline - steel enterprise profit narrowing - steel enterprise production cut - ore price trend decline" chain may appear in the second half of the year, as real estate investment is still falling at a rate of about 10%, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is difficult to make up for the real estate gap, and the uncertainty of exports may gradually appear in the data after the 90 - day suspension period in the US [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On June 25, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, opened lower, oscillated and declined, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing at 702.5 yuan/ton, down 0.43% [7]. - The prices of major iron ore contracts on June 25 are as follows: RB2510 closed at 2976 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; HC2510 closed at 3098 yuan/ton, down 0.26%; SS2508 closed at 12540 yuan/ton, up 1.25%; I2509 closed at 702.5 yuan/ton, down 0.43% [5]. - The black - series futures' long - short positions on June 25 showed different changes. For example, the long - short position difference of I2509 was - 5985, with a deviation of - 1.41% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On June 25, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were lowered by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major grade iron ores at Qingdao Port were lowered by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9]. - Technically, for the iron ore 2509 contract, the daily KDJ indicator showed a divergent trend, with the J - value continuing to decline and the K - value and D - value continuing to rise; the red column of the daily MACD indicator has been increasing for 3 consecutive trading days [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The cease - fire agreement in the Middle East has an indirect impact on iron ore, mainly through emotional shocks, and the main logic lies in its own fundamentals [11]. - From the current fundamentals, steel enterprises still maintain a good profit level, the production cut pace is tortuous, last week's daily average pig iron output increased by 0.57 million tons to 242.18 million tons, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate and operating rate both increased, indicating strong support on the demand side of iron ore. The supply side has also increased, with the shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil rising above 30 million tons, reaching a new high since late June 2024, and the arrival volume also rising to a relatively high level in history [11]. 3.4 Industry News - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei that China's economy has withstood pressure and maintained a positive trend this year, and social confidence has continued to improve. Policies such as trade - in of large - scale durable consumer goods should be effectively implemented [13]. - From June 1 - 22, the retail sales of passenger cars nationwide reached 1.269 million units, a year - on - year increase of 24% compared with the same period in June last year and an 8% increase compared with the same period last month; the wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers reached 1.238 million units, a year - on - year increase of 14% and a 9% increase compared with the same period last month [13]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to iron ore, including prices at Qingdao Port, shipping and arrival volumes, capacity utilization rates, inventory, and production and consumption data of steel products [18][22][29][41]