建信期货锌期货日报-20250626

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The zinc market maintains a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. Although social inventory is at a low level, the trend of inventory accumulation during the off - season has not been confirmed. The SHFE zinc is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the 22,000 - yuan mark turning into a resistance level [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures Market Quotes: For SHFE zinc 2507, it opened at 22,150 yuan/ton, closed at 22,175 yuan/ton, with the highest at 22,215 yuan/ton, and the lowest at 22,025 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan, a 0.43% increase, and the holding volume decreased by 13,166 to 38,573 lots. For SHFE zinc 2508 (the main contract), it opened at 21,975 yuan/ton, closed at 22,045 yuan/ton, with the highest at 22,095 yuan/ton, and the lowest at 21,860 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan, a 0.57% increase, with reduced volume and increased positions, and the holding volume increased by 8,395 to 129,865 lots. For SHFE zinc 2509, it opened at 21,905 yuan/ton, closed at 21,945 yuan/ton, with the highest at 21,995 yuan/ton, and the lowest at 21,775 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, a 0.69% increase, and the holding volume increased by 3,349 to 61,109 lots [7] - Market Situation: The SHFE zinc traded within a range. The 0 - 3 spread was C20.17, the SHFE - LME ratio was 8.25, and the ratio excluding exchange was 1.16. The spot import loss was 875.84 yuan, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. The import window remained deeply closed, the LME inventory continued to be below 130,000 tons, and China's import volume in June was expected to decline month - on - month. The mine supply was abundant, the imported zinc concentrate TC increased slightly, and the domestic TC remained flat at 3,600 yuan/ton. The smelting end was expected to have an incremental output, while the operating rates in the downstream primary consumption sectors were all lower than the same period in previous years. The construction of engineering projects and the home appliance industry were both weak, and the galvanizing production plan was reduced [7] 2. Industry News - Shanghai Market: On June 25, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,205 - 22,295 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was between 22,135 - 22,225 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 40 - 50 yuan/ton to the average price, and there was no quote against the market price. In the second trading session, the ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a premium of 140 - 150 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract [8] - Ningbo Market: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,185 - 22,245 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract and a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price [8] - Tianjin Market: The 0 zinc ingot was mainly traded between 22,060 - 22,180 yuan/ton, and the 1 zinc ingot was traded between 21,940 - 22,030 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc was generally quoted at a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract, and the Tianjin market was at a discount of about 60 yuan/ton compared with the Shanghai market [8][9] - Guangdong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,090 - 22,185 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a premium of 180 - 210 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract and a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, the SHFE monthly spread, the weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions by SMM, and the LME zinc inventory, with data sources including Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13]