LPG早报-20250626

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The civil gas price first rose and then fell due to continuous disruptions in international supply, sufficient domestic supply, and weak demand. The PG futures price strengthened significantly unilaterally due to geopolitical shocks, with the basis of the 07 contract weakening and the monthly spread weakening significantly. Outer - market prices continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio increased. [1] - Geopolitical tensions have significantly escalated with the US attacking three Iranian nuclear facilities, which is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side, so cautious operation is recommended. [1] - In terms of fundamentals, port arrivals are delayed, chemical demand has slightly increased, port inventories and storage capacity ratios have decreased, factory inventories are basically flat, and external sales are basically unchanged. Chemical demand is supported, with the operating rates of PDH and MTBE increasing and that of alkylation basically unchanged. [1] - Under the expectation of increased supply, the expected increase in chemical demand provides some support, with Shandong expected to be boosted and East and South China more likely to fluctuate. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Data - From June 19 to June 25, 2025, the prices of liquefied gas in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as related prices such as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, etc., showed different trends. For example, on June 25, the South China liquefied gas price was 4755, the East China liquefied gas price was 4667, and the Shandong liquefied gas price was 4750. The daily change in the Shandong liquefied gas price was - 60, and the daily change in the propane CIF Japan price was - 18. [1] - The 09 - month spread increased by 11 to 110. The US to Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4667. PP prices rose slightly, FEI and CP prices recovered, PDH production profits improved, and the FEI production cost is higher than that of CP. The PG futures price declined, and the basis of the 07 contract is affected. [1] Weekly Viewpoints - Civil gas prices first rose and then fell. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4657. The CFR prices of propane and butane in East and South China are basically the same. The PG futures price strengthened significantly unilaterally due to geopolitical shocks, with the 07 contract basis weakening to 80 (- 141), and the monthly spread weakening significantly (07 - 08 is 10, 07 - 09 is 195). Outer - market prices continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio increased. [1] - In terms of regional spreads, the internal - external spread continued to strengthen, the FEI - MB spread strengthened slightly, while the FEI - CP and MB - CP spreads weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. The AFEI propane FOB discount weakened slightly to 2.25, and the CP CIF discount dropped significantly to 12 dollars. Freight rates increased slightly. [1] - In terms of downstream profits, PDH spot profits improved due to the increase in drawing prices; the profit of producing PP with FEI decreased, while the profit of producing with CP increased; the profits of alkylation and MTBE decreased; the FEI - MOPJ spread decreased. [1] - Geopolitical tensions have significantly escalated, and it is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side. [1] - In terms of fundamentals, port arrivals are delayed, chemical demand has slightly increased, port inventories and storage capacity ratios have decreased, factory inventories are basically flat, and external sales are basically unchanged. Chemical demand is supported, with the operating rates of PDH and MTBE increasing and that of alkylation basically unchanged. Multiple PDH factories are expected to increase their loads in the future, driving up the PDH operating rate. [1] - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 8358 lots (- 647), mainly due to a decrease of 270 in Jinneng Chemical and 377 in Shanghai Yuchi. [1]