芳烃橡胶早报-20250626

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: After the near - end TA maintenance is implemented, the start - up rate decreases month - on - month, polyester start - up increases, inventory slightly decreases, the basis strengthens again, and the spot processing fee improves month - on - month. TA will enter the inventory accumulation stage, and the monthly drive may fluctuate between PX inventory de - stocking and additional production cuts due to compressed polyester profits [1]. - MEG: Near - end domestic maintenance continues to resume, start - up rate keeps rising. Iranian devices stop operation intensively, port inventory slightly decreases, and coal - based profits continue to expand. In the future, the inventory accumulation range is expected to be limited, and it is expected to be in a volatile pattern [4]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: The start - up rate has increased, production and sales remain stable, and inventory has slightly accumulated. The demand side is under pressure, but short - fiber exports maintain a high growth rate. The processing fee is expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to industry production cut implementation [4]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber: The national explicit inventory remains stable, and there is no seasonal de - stocking. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [4]. - Styrene: The profit of domestic styrene production has changed, and attention should be paid to price and profit trends [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From June 19 to June 25, crude oil prices decreased from $78.9 to $67.7, PTA internal spot price decreased from 5190 to 5050, and PTA processing fee increased from 247 to 417 [1]. - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device reduced its load [1]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From June 19 to June 25, the MEG internal price decreased from 4585 to 4398, and the coal - based MEG profit decreased from 672 to 478 [4]. - Device Changes: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton device was under maintenance [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Profit Changes: From June 19 to June 25, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6890 to 6870, and the short - fiber profit increased from - 100 to 62 [4]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rate of the original staple fiber reached 95.1% after Fujian Jinlun restarted [4]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - Price Changes: From June 19 to June 25, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 1715 to 1680, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 13630 to 13370 [4]. - Related Spreads and Indicators: There are changes in spreads such as the difference between the blended rubber and the RU main contract, and the number of SHFE RU warrants decreased [4]. Styrene - Price and Profit Changes: From June 19 to June 25, the price of styrene (in Jiangsu) decreased from 8100 to 7880, and the domestic styrene production profit decreased from 55 to 280 [4].