燃料油早报-20250626

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread fluctuated, with crude oil prices rising significantly. High-sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in terms of oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, with the August - September spread at $7.5, and the basis also fluctuated. The domestic FU showed a differentiation between near and far months, with the July contract dropping to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the September contract fluctuating at around $8. The 0.5 crack spread in Singapore declined, and the month spread fluctuated. This week, onshore inventories in Singapore decreased, high-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, low-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, ARA inventories decreased, floating storage inventories fluctuated, and US inventories decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month-on-month, remaining at a moderately high level compared to the same period, while Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq account for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high-sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia-Pacific region and cannot be used for physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact magnitude will increase. Recently, high-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power generation season, with the overseas market performing strongly. The domestic FU near-month contracts are under pressure, with relatively low valuations, and the market game continues. For the far-month contracts, attention should be paid to the impact of supply disruptions. The domestic and overseas valuations of LU are relatively high. [4][5] Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 19 to June 25, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, and other related products changed. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from $481.08 to $414.85, with a change of $1.34. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During the same period, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, and other related products also changed. For instance, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from $480.47 to $420.87, with a change of -$7.03. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From June 19 to June 25, 2025, the FOB prices of Singapore 380cst and FOB VLSFO changed. The FOB 380cst price decreased from $485.32 to $424.16, with a change of -$7.46. [3] Domestic FU Data - The prices of domestic FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 contracts changed. For example, the FU 01 contract price decreased from 3154 to 2874, with a change of -21. [3] Domestic LU Data - The prices of domestic LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 contracts changed. The LU 01 contract price increased from 3787 to 3508, with a change of 8. [4]