永安期货有色早报-20250626

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For copper, recognize short - term support from structural squeeze on absolute prices, but focus on three possible third - quarter fundamental changes: S232 investigation impact, US copper inventory re - distribution, and potential weakening in some sectors [1]. - For aluminum, short - term fundamentals are okay, pay attention to demand, and consider reverse spreads in low - inventory situations [1]. - For zinc, maintain a short - allocation strategy, hold long - short spreads between domestic and foreign markets, and watch for reverse spreads between different months [2]. - For stainless steel, expect short - term weakening and oscillation [3]. - For lead, expect price to oscillate between 16700 - 17100 next week, with supply flat and demand weak in June [5]. - For tin, hold long - positions cautiously in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities after maintenance in the long - term [7]. - For industrial silicon, expect short - term price pressure and long - term bottom - running based on leading factories' cash - flow costs [9]. - For lithium carbonate, expect short - term price decline and long - term weakening oscillation if major producers' operation rates don't drop significantly [11]. - For nickel, continue to watch for opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [14]. Summary by Metals Copper - Pricing data from June 19 - 25, 2025 shows changes in various indicators. The LME inventory reaches below 100,000 tons for the first time this year, and the cash - 3M spread rises [1]. - Key factors include the possible July S232 investigation result, potential return of US copper inventory, and expected weakening in some sectors [1]. Aluminum - Pricing data is presented from June 19 - 25, 2025. Supply slightly increases, 6 - 7 demand is seasonally weak, and the 6 - 7 inventory reduction is gentle [1]. Zinc - Pricing data from June 19 - 25, 2025 reveals wide - range price oscillation. Supply increases in June, demand weakens domestically and has production issues overseas, and inventory accumulation slow now but may speed up at the end of June [2]. Stainless Steel - Pricing data covers June 19 - 25, 2025. Supply sees partial production cuts from late May, demand is mainly for essential needs, and inventory slightly increases [3]. Lead - Pricing data from June 19 - 25, 2025 shows a price low - point rebound. Supply has scrap shortage and complex TC; demand has high battery inventory and subdued consumption [5]. Tin - Pricing data is provided from June 19 - 25, 2025. Supply has production cuts in China and stable overseas; demand has limited elasticity and LME inventory decline [7]. Industrial Silicon - Pricing data from June 19 - 25, 2025. Production starts to increase, with price supported in the short - term and pressured in the long - term due to capacity over - supply [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Pricing data from June 19 - 25, 2025. Price drops, production and inventory increase, and long - term price may weaken due to capacity expansion [11]. Nickel - Pricing data from June 19 - 25, 2025. Supply maintains high levels and demand is weak, with inventory stable overseas and slightly decreasing in China [14].