甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250626

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures market is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [1]. - For plastics (polyethylene), overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase. The number of maintenance projects in June has decreased, and domestic linear production has increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new plant commissioning [5]. - For PP, the upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profits are around - 500. Exports have been good this year. Supply in June is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to grow or PDH plants undergo more maintenance [5]. - For PVC, the basis has strengthened. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is at a high level and is decreasing. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [9]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From June 19 to June 25, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, while the prices of江苏现货, 华南现货, etc., showed certain fluctuations. For example, the江苏现货 price dropped from 2765 to 2640, a decrease of 125 [1]. - Viewpoint: High imports are realized, inventory is accumulating, and the market is in a bearish realization period. The unilateral direction is hard to determine, and a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [1]. Plastics (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From June 19 to June 25, 2025, the price of东北亚乙烯 remained stable at 845 on June 25, while the prices of华北LL, 华东LL, etc., decreased. For example, the华东LL price dropped from 7500 to 7390, a decrease of 110 [5]. - Viewpoint: Overall inventory is neutral, import profits are around - 400, and domestic linear production has increased in June. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new plant commissioning [5]. PP - Price Data: From June 19 to June 25, 2025, the price of山东丙烯 decreased from 6800 to 6780, and the price of华东PP decreased from 7145 to 7135 [5]. - Viewpoint: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is +100, and non - standard price spreads are neutral. Supply in June is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average [5]. PVC - Price Data: From June 19 to June 25, 2025, the price of西北电石 decreased from 2375 to 2350, and the基差(高端交割品) increased from - 90 to - 80 [8][9]. - Viewpoint: The basis has strengthened, mid - upstream inventory is decreasing, and attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in June [9].