Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall supply of SHFE lead is weak, which provides some support for prices, but the price is still under pressure due to weakening demand. The SHFE lead price is currently being suppressed by the annual line and is difficult to break through in the short - term. It is recommended to go short on rallies as the main strategy [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract is 17,225 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread is - 25 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest is 80,736 lots, up 1,309 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 414 lots, down 582 lots; the warehouse receipts are 44,667 tons; the SHFE inventory is 51,291 tons, up 1,480 tons weekly; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,012 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 277,375 tons, down 3,650 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 lead spot price is 17,000 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 lead spot price is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is - 225 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) forward premium is - 24.13 dollars/ton, up 0.13 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 73.83%, up 4% weekly, and the weekly output is 3.57 tons, up 0.09 tons; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 40 dollars/thousand tons; the global lead ore output is 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons monthly; the lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons monthly [2] 4. Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons monthly; the refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons monthly; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 640 yuan/ton; the average price of waste batteries is 10,150 yuan/ton, up 30.36 yuan [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41,450,000 units, down 425,000 units monthly; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries is 20,550 yuan/ton; the automobile output is 264.2 million vehicles, up 3.8 million vehicles monthly; the new energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles monthly [2] 6. Industry News - Trump is considering appointing the next Fed chair in advance to weaken Powell's influence; Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates 7 times in 2026 starting from March, with the final rate dropping to 2.5% - 2.75%; Powell said tariffs may be a one - time impact, inflation expectations have declined slightly since April, and the Fed does not consider federal debt in monetary policy decisions; Collins said it's time to be patient and cautious, and a rate cut may occur later this year depending on tariff impacts [2] 7. Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, primary lead smelters' operating rates and output have declined due to lead price fluctuations; the loss pressure of secondary lead has decreased, but the subsequent production increase is difficult due to the traditional off - season and raw material constraints. On the demand side, market transactions are weak, and the support for lead prices is limited. Overseas inventory is accumulating again, and domestic inventory has a slight increase [2]
瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250626
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-26 08:46