瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250626

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Corn: US corn has a good excellent rate, and the trade relationship between China and the US has eased, leading to concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, the supply in the Northeast is tightening, and traders are bullish on the future. However, the expected impact of wheat substitution has slowed the rise of corn prices. The corn futures price has recently fallen from its high and is in a high - level oscillation, suggesting short - term trading [2]. - Corn Starch: Affected by continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years. With reduced supply pressure and strong corn prices, the spot price of corn starch is relatively good, and the industry inventory has been declining. Recently, it has weakened along with the fall of corn prices, also suggesting short - term trading [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2378 yuan/ton, and the corn starch monthly spread (7 - 9) is 107 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn starch is 7895 hands, and the net long position of corn is - 39278 hands [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 217440 hands, and that of corn starch is 23174 hands [2] - The main contract CS - C spread is 350 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of CBOT corn is 405.25 cents/bushel [2] Outer Market - CBOT corn total position is 1592477 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position is - 107244 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2430 yuan/ton, and the factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, and the factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2940 yuan/ton [2] - The CIF price of imported corn is 1899.63 yuan/ton, and the international freight of imported corn is 0 US dollars/ton [2] Substitute Spot Price - The average spot price of wheat is 2446.11 yuan/ton, and the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 135 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, and the predicted output is 35.37 million tons [2] - The predicted sown area of corn in Brazil is 131 million hectares, and the predicted output is 22.6 million tons [2] - The predicted sown area of corn in Argentina is 53 million hectares, and the predicted output is 7.5 million tons [2] - The predicted sown area of corn in China is 295 million hectares, and the predicted output is 44.3 million tons [2] - The predicted output of corn in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 113.5 million tons, and the deep - processed corn inventory is 459.2 million tons [2] - The corn inventory in northern ports is 382 million tons, and the starch enterprise inventory is 130.9 million tons [2] - The import volume of corn is 19 million tons, and the export volume of corn starch is 2664 tons [2] - The output of feed is 27.78 million tons, and the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 81 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The deep - processed corn consumption is 117.62 million tons, and the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 43.8% [2] - The starch enterprise operating rate is 51.15%, and the sample feed corn inventory days is 33.07 days [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.54%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.7% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.07%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.07% [2] Industry News - Analysts expect the US corn sown area in 2025 to be 95.35 million acres, and the soybean sown area to be 83.65 million acres [2] - Analysts expect the US corn inventory on June 1 to be 4.641 billion bushels, a 7.1% decrease from the same period last year [2] - As of June 22, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn is 70%, lower than the market expectation of 72% [2] Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]