瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250626

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material side is affected by policies, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply and intensifying raw material disturbances; the decline in ferronickel prices weakens cost support [2] - On the supply side, steel mills maintain normal production, cut 300 - series stainless steel production, but the supply pressure still exists [2] - On the demand side, it enters the traditional off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, export demand pressure, and poor domestic inventory reduction [2] - Technically, the short - selling force weakens with reduced positions, and it breaks through the MA10 pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,635 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 95 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 07 - 08 contracts is - 70 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3,172 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,738 lots; the main contract position is 117,031 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 42,963 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 112,446 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 421 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,375 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 235 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 23,900 metal tons, with an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, with a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, with an increase of 31,300 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,650 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2,100 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2] - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless steel output is 1.7847 million tons, with a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 625,300 tons, with an increase of 6,100 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, with an increase of 53.4777 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, with a decrease of 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, with a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and the Fed hopes to base decisions on actual data, not over - confident forecasts; the US economy outperforms others, meaning higher interest rates, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point [2] - IMF Deputy Managing Director Li Bo said the development of stablecoins has both opportunities and challenges, and there is a need for more global consensus on effective regulation [2] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei that it is necessary to actively expand domestic demand, boost consumption, accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model, and effectively respond to external shocks [2]