瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250626

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the rebar industry chain dated June 26, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - RB main contract closing price is 2,973.00 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; RB main contract open interest is 2,191,778 lots, up 19,178 lots [2] - RB contract top 20 net open interest is -11,769 lots, up 24,836 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread is -5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] - RB SHFE warehouse receipt daily report is 18,221 tons, unchanged; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 130 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) is 3,110.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight) is 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) is 3,140.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) is 3,180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - RB main contract basis is 137.00 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil to rebar spot spread is 90.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore is 700.00 yuan/wet ton, down 3.00 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,265.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax - excluded) is 2,230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet is 2,910.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Domestic iron ore port inventory is 13,894.16 million tons, down 38.98 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory is 81.12 million tons, down 6.04 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory is 634.01 million tons, down 8.72 million tons; Tangshan billet inventory is 77.26 million tons, up 8.00 million tons [2] - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 83.84%, up 0.45%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.81%, up 0.25% [2] Industry Situation - Sample steel mills' rebar output is 217.84 million tons, up 5.66 million tons; sample steel mills' rebar capacity utilization rate is 47.75%, up 1.25% [2] - Sample steel mills' rebar inventory is 185.60 million tons, up 3.28 million tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory is 363.40 million tons, down 5.35 million tons [2] - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate is 67.71%, down 2.08%; domestic crude steel output is 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons [2] - China's rebar monthly output is 1,730 million tons, up 42 million tons; steel net export volume is 1,010.00 million tons, up 16.00 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.13; fixed asset investment completion cumulative year - on - year is 3.70%, down 0.30% [2] - Real estate development investment completion cumulative year - on - year is - 10.70%, down 0.40%; infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) cumulative year - on - year is 5.60%, down 0.20% [2] Group 3: Core View - On Thursday, the RB2510 contract rebounded after hitting a low. Macroscopically, China will continue to integrate into the global market. In terms of supply and demand, rebar weekly output increased, factory inventory rose, social inventory decreased, and total inventory decreased with a narrowing decline. Overall, apparent demand increased slightly, and strong rebounds in coking coal and coke supported steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were consolidating at a low level with a shrinking green column. The operation suggestion is short - term trading within the day, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 4: Industry News - On June 26, Mysteel reported that the actual rebar output was 217.84 million tons, up 5.66 million tons; steel mill inventory was 185.6 million tons, up 3.28 million tons; social inventory was 363.4 million tons, down 5.35 million tons; total inventory was 549 million tons, down 2.07 million tons; apparent demand was 219.91 million tons, up 0.72 million tons [2] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei that efforts should be made to build a unified national market, boost domestic demand and consumption, and build a new model for real estate development. Enterprises in high - end equipment manufacturing, smart photovoltaics, clean energy, and new materials should be promoted to innovate, and in - fighting competition should be comprehensively addressed [2]