瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250626

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2450 in the short - term. The domestic methanol production has a slight increase as the output of restored capacity is more than that of overhauled and reduced - production capacity. The enterprise inventory drops significantly due to long - term contract settlement and order execution in the northwest region. The methanol port inventory accumulates greatly affected by downstream factors. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate declines slightly this week, and it may continue to decrease with the expected shutdown of the second - phase of Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin next week [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2417 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 16 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 857,159 lots, down 47,300 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 75,570 lots, up 10,629 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,867, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2710 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price difference is 710 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 293 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 286 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 346 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 270 euros/ton, down 11 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 60 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 3.39 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.16 dollars/million British thermal units [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 49.6 tons, up 5.9 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 17.45 tons, up 2.51 tons. The methanol import profit is 145.35 yuan/ton, down 3.55 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 341,600 tons, down 25,800 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 88.65%, up 0.67% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.39%, down 0.5%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.66%, up 0.96%; the acetic acid operating rate is 88.33%, down 7.32%; the MTBE operating rate is 63.71%, up 4.01%; the olefin operating rate is 89.22%, up 0.66%. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 943 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.48%, up 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 25.7%, up 0.11%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.89%, down 3.03%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.9%, down 3% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of June 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 34.16 tons, down 2.58 tons (7.02% MoM); the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.07 tons, down 3.31 tons (12.08% MoM). The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports is 67.05 tons, up 8.41 tons. The inventory in East China increases by 5.90 tons, and that in South China increases by 2.51 tons. As of June 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 87.96%, down 1.12% MoM [2]