瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250626

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach. The current situation shows a weak supply - demand balance in the short term. The implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy has increased the cost of nickel resource supply. The domestic nickel ore port inventory is decreasing, and raw materials are in a tight situation. The smelting end faces profit losses, leading some non - integrated smelters to cut production. On the demand side, stainless steel mills' profits are compressed, and the 300 - series is being converted to other products. Although the demand for new energy vehicles is rising, its impact is limited. Domestic inventory is decreasing while overseas inventory remains stable. Technically, the short - selling pressure has weakened with a reduction in positions, and the price has broken through the MA10 resistance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 120,830 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2,230 yuan/ton. The 08 - 09 contract spread is - 110 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,075 US dollars/ton, up 170 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Nickel is 80,909 lots, an increase of 44,607 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is - 9,125 lots, an increase of 4,288 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 204,216 tons, a decrease of 144 tons. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,304 tons, a decrease of 389 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 12,264 tons, a decrease of 1,410 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 21,263 tons, a decrease of 96 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,650 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 123,100 yuan/ton, up 3,450 yuan/ton. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 197.69 US dollars/ton, up 0.7 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, an increase of 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 739.24 million tons, an increase of 17.37 million tons. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.44 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.39 million metal tons, an increase of 0.22 million metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 84.82 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is - 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, and the inventory is 62.53 million tons, an increase of 0.61 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and the Fed will base decisions on actual data, not over - confident forecasts. The US economy outperforms others, meaning higher interest rates, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point. - IMF Deputy Managing Director Li Bo said that the development of stablecoins has both opportunities and challenges, and effective global regulation is needed. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei that efforts should be made to expand domestic demand, boost consumption, accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model, and develop new - quality productivity according to local conditions [2].