瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250626

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the high uncertainty in the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and Thailand's ban on the transit of Burmese tin ore, the supply of tin ore imports is restricted. Although the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, the processing fees for tin ore remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, smelting enterprises in Yunnan face raw material shortages and cost pressures, while those in Jiangxi have a stressed scrap recycling system and a high risk of capacity exit. On the demand side, the consumer electronics industry is in a seasonal off - season with weakening orders. Technically, the long - position strength has increased, breaking through the MA60 resistance and testing the previous high. It is recommended to either wait and see or go long on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 267,270 yuan/ton, up 4,270 yuan; the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin is 33,140 US dollars/ton, up 680 US dollars - The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai tin is 160 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the main contract's open interest for Shanghai tin is 10,817 lots, down 2,260 lots - The net position of the top 20 futures traders for Shanghai tin is 1,727 lots, down 564 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 2,155 tons, down 25 tons - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin inventory is 6,965 tons, down 142 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 700 tons, up 40 tons - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin warehouse receipts are 6,591 tons, up 119 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 265,800 yuan/ton, up 3,700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,960 yuan/ton, up 4,850 yuan - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 1,470 yuan/ton, down 570 yuan; the LME tin (0 - 3) spread is 15 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars [3] 3.3上游情况 - The monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 251,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 255,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 172,790 yuan/ton, up 2,080 yuan - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons [3] 3.6行业消息 - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and the Fed will base its decisions on actual data, not over - confident forecasts. The US economy outperforms others, meaning higher interest rates, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point - IMF Deputy Managing Director Li Bo said that the development of stablecoins presents both opportunities and challenges, and global consensus is needed on effective regulation - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out the need to expand domestic demand, boost consumption, build a new real - estate development model, and develop new - quality productive forces [3]