棉花早报-20250627

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are considered neutral, with various factors such as production, consumption, and inventory showing a mixed picture. The basis is bullish as the spot price has a premium over the futures price. The inventory situation is bearish according to the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's forecast. The market trend shows a bullish signal on the disk, but the main position is bearish. Overall, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent rebound high, and the market sentiment has turned optimistic. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is around 13,800 - 14,000 [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include the reduction of previous Sino - US tariffs and the upcoming 90 - day foreign trade export rush period, as well as the futures price approaching historical lows. Bearish factors are the consumption off - season, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, and an increase in inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: USDA's June report shows that for the 25/26 cotton season, the global production is 2547.2 million tons, consumption is 2563.8 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1672.1 million tons. ICAC's June report indicates that in the 25/26 season, the global production is 2600 million tons and consumption is 2570 million tons. In May, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.21 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. China imported 40,000 tons of cotton in May, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and 100,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67%. The Ministry of Agriculture's June forecast for the 25/26 season in China is a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 823 million tons [5]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,020 yuan, and the basis for the 09 contract is 1300 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price [5]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's June forecast for the 25/26 season shows an ending inventory of 823 million tons [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The main position is bearish, with a net short position decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - Expectation: US cotton has a slight rebound, and domestic Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent rebound high. The financial market has generally turned optimistic, and the Sino - US trade dispute has been temporarily put on hold. The center of Zhengzhou cotton is slowly rising, and the upper pressure level for the 09 contract is around 13,800 - 14,000 [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast: It shows the production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory of cotton in different countries and regions from 2021/22 to 2025/26, with detailed data and month - on - month changes [11][12]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the global cotton production, consumption, and ending inventory from 2017 to 2024 [14]. - China's Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 2024/25 to 2025/26 seasons includes data on beginning inventory, sown area, yield, production, import, consumption, and ending inventory [16]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.