Workflow
广发早知道：汇总版-20250627
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-27 01:24
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market shows sector rotation, with the index facing resistance above. The futures market also shows corresponding fluctuations, and different investment strategies are recommended according to different varieties [2][3][4]. - The sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has warmed up, but there are still short - term end - of - quarter disturbances. The bond market is generally expected to be in a pattern of short - term fluctuations but overall strength [5][6]. - The prices of precious metals are dominated by tariffs and macro - policies. Gold and silver show different trends. Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties, while silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend [8][10][11]. - The container shipping futures EC shows a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12]. - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals sector have different market conditions. For example, copper is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while aluminum oxide is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [13][17]. - In the black metals sector, steel is affected by coking coal supply, iron ore may be stable and strong in the short term, and coking coal and coke have different supply - demand and price trends [41][43][45]. - In the agricultural products sector, meal products follow the decline of US soybeans, and the market trends of different agricultural products such as pigs, corn, sugar, and cotton vary [51][54][57]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Thursday, the A - share market opened lower, rose briefly, and then declined in the afternoon. The main stock indexes and the four major stock index futures contracts all adjusted. The basis discount of the four major stock index futures contracts was repaired to some extent [2][3]. - News: The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July. Overseas, Japan is negotiating tariffs with the US [3]. - Funding: On June 26, the A - share trading volume was basically the same as the previous day. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan [4]. - Operation Suggestion: The index has stable support below and needs a driving force to break through above. It is recommended to try to buy the deeply discounted 09 contract of the CSI 1000 on dips and sell the 09 call option near 6300 to form a covered combination [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Most Treasury bond futures closed flat, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - Funding: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan. The central bank's attitude towards protecting liquidity is clear, and the end - of - month capital interest rate may fluctuate but is generally controllable [5][6]. - Operation Suggestion: The end - of - month capital situation still has disturbances, and the bond market is generally cautious. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on adjustments, pay attention to economic data and funding trends, and consider positive arbitrage for the TS2509 contract and curve steepening strategies [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Review: Due to factors such as tariff negotiations and macro - policies, the US dollar index weakened, and the trends of gold and silver diverged. Gold prices declined slightly, while silver prices rose [8][10]. - Outlook: Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties. It is recommended to try the strategy of double - selling out - of - the - money gold options. Silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend, and its price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of $36 - 37 [10][11]. - Funding: The recent stable trends of US stocks and bonds and the strong performance of virtual currencies suppress the prices of precious metals, but the long - position boost has led to a continuous increase in silver ETF holdings [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - Spot Quotation: The spot prices of different shipping companies are provided [12]. - Container Shipping Index: The SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The demand side shows the PMI data of the eurozone and the US [12]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the overall trading was inactive [13]. - Macro: The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, the dollar index has weakened, and the COMEX - LME spread has widened again, which is beneficial to copper prices [13][14]. - Supply: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper increased in May but is expected to decline slightly in June [15]. - Demand: The processing and terminal demand of copper show different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [16]. - Inventory: COMEX inventory is accumulating, while domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [16]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 78000 - 81000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: The average spot price of aluminum oxide decreased [17]. - Supply: The production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased in May, and some production capacities are expected to resume production in June [18]. - Inventory: The port inventory of aluminum oxide decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: The supply of aluminum oxide is in a state of slight excess, and it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices in the medium - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 2750 - 3100 [19]. Aluminum - Spot: The average spot price of aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in May, and the aluminum - water ratio remained high. The production capacity is expected to remain high in June [20]. - Demand: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries have declined [20]. - Inventory: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory decreased [21]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: Aluminum prices are expected to be in a wide - range high - level shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19800 - 20800 [21]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The average spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [21]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased in May, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly in June [22]. - Demand: The demand is under pressure, and the market trading activity has decreased. The impact of the Sino - US economic and trade talks on actual demand has not yet been effective [22]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy has increased significantly [22]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19200 - 20000 [23]. Zinc - Spot: The average price of zinc ingots increased, but the downstream receiving willingness was low [23]. - Supply: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in June [24]. - Demand: The demand at the initial end is weakening, and the downstream is mainly purchasing on dips [25]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory are both decreasing [25]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: Zinc prices are expected to be in a shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [26]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin increased, but the market trading was cold [26]. - Supply: The import of tin ore increased in May, mainly from Africa, while the supply from Myanmar remained low [27][28]. - Demand and Inventory: The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows different trends. The LME inventory decreased, while the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [28]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices according to the inflection points of inventory and import data [29]. Nickel - Spot: The average price of electrolytic nickel increased [29]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [29]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys is stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend [30]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: Nickel prices are expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 116000 - 124000 [31]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [32]. - Raw Materials: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron has decreased. The price of chrome ore has weak support [32]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease slightly in June, with an increase in the 300 - series production [33]. - Inventory: The social inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts have decreased [34]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: The price of stainless steel is expected to be in a weak operation, with the main contract referring to the range of 12300 - 13000 [35]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased [36]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in June, and the supply is still sufficient [37]. - Demand: The demand is generally stable, but there is pressure in the off - season [37]. - Inventory: The inventory has been accumulating in all links [38]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 58000 - 62000 [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price remained stable, and the futures price fluctuated slightly [41]. - Supply: The production of steel decreased from a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly [41]. - Demand: The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased slightly, and the inventory was at a low level and basically balanced [41]. - Inventory: The inventory of steel is approaching the accumulation inflection point, with the inventory of rebar decreasing and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing slightly [42]. - View: It is recommended to short on rebounds for rebar and hot - rolled coil, and also consider selling out - of - the - money call options [42]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [43]. - Futures: The iron ore futures contract increased slightly [43]. - Basis: The basis of PB powder is 33.7 yuan/ton [43]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron production remained at a high level, and the demand for iron ore has certain resilience [43]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports also increased [43][44]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased [44]. - View: Iron ore is expected to be stable and strong in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with the range referring to 690 - 740 [44]. Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: The coking coal futures price increased, and the spot price was weakly stable [45]. - Supply: The production capacity utilization rate of coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [45][46]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [46]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [46]. - View: It is recommended to go long on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract in the short term and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47][48]. Coke - Futures and Spot: The coke futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The fourth round of price cuts was implemented [49]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke was negative [49]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [49]. - Demand: The demand for coke increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [50]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coke decreased [50]. - View: It is recommended to hedge the coke 2509 contract at high prices after the rebound, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [50]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - Spot Market: The price of soybean meal decreased, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was 300 tons, and the opening rate of rapeseed pressing plants was 17% [51]. - Fundamentals: Analysts expect the US soybean inventory and planting area. The export of Brazilian soybeans slowed down, and the soybean harvest in Ukraine is expected to decrease [52]. - Market Outlook: The soybean meal price may follow the decline of US soybeans, but the support is expected to gradually strengthen [53]. Pigs - Spot Situation: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with an average price of 14.56 yuan/kg [54]. - Market Data: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening turned negative. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly [55]. - Market Outlook: The spot price of pigs is in a shock structure. The short - term futures price may be strong, but there may be a decline risk near the delivery of the 09 contract [56]. Corn - Spot Price: The price of corn in Northeast China, North China, and ports remained stable, with a slight increase in the price at Shekou Port [57]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of corn in northern four ports and processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly [57][58]. - Market Outlook: The price of corn may decline slightly in the short term due to auction expectations, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [58]. Sugar - Market Analysis: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price of raw sugar is expected to be in a weak shock. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a bottom - range shock, with the reference range of 5650 - 5850 [59]. - Fundamentals: The sugar production in Brazil increased in May, and the sugar production in Thailand is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The import of sugar in China increased in May [59][60]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to short on rebounds [59]. Cotton - Market Analysis: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range shock, and it is necessary to pay attention to the macro and downstream demand [60]. - Fundamentals: The cotton planting progress in the US is slightly behind [61].