贵金属日评-20250627

Report Overview - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - NATO summit increases geopolitical risks and weakens the US dollar, supporting the strength of London gold above $3300 per ounce, while the strong rise of the Chinese stock market makes silver with stronger industrial attributes outperform gold. Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold, with rising volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - In April, Trump's tariff measures caused a shock in the global financial market, pushing up the gold price. Although the gold price has corrected from its high, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but short - term volatility has increased significantly. Investors are advised to avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Quotes - NATO summit agreements increase geopolitical risks and weaken the US dollar index to a low of 97.3 for the year. Safe - haven demand and currency factors support London gold above $3300 per ounce, and silver outperforms gold. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies, with rising volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary June PMI values in Europe and the US, the Fed Chairman's congressional testimony, the May PCE inflation in the US, and the development of the Middle East situation [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Quotes - In April, Trump's tariff measures triggered a shock in the global financial market, pushing the gold price to break through $3500 per ounce. Although the gold price has corrected from its high due to the fading emotional impact and the marginal improvement of global trade, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but short - term volatility has increased significantly. Investors are advised to avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. 3.1.3 Domestic Precious Metals Quotes | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 776.05 | 777.64 | 772.42 | 777.59 | 0.20% | 412,622 | - 3795 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,749 | 8,827 | 8,689 | 8,821 | 0.82% | 883,880 | 12,149 | | Gold T + D | 771.68 | 773.31 | 767.65 | 773.26 | 0.20% | 211,684 | 1,818 | | Silver T + D | 8,698 | 8,777 | 8,641 | 8,773 | 0.86% | 3,182,526 | 54,730 | [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump welcomes the quick end of the Israel - Iran war and may hold talks with Iranian officials next week, while the US has not given up on extreme pressure on Iran but may relax law enforcement. The IAEA Director - General emphasizes the need for IAEA personnel to return to Iranian nuclear facilities for assessment [17]. - Fed Chairman Powell believes that Trump's tariff plan may only cause a one - time price increase, but the risk of more persistent inflation is significant, making the Fed cautious about further interest rate cuts, highlighting the difference between Powell and Trump [17]. - Trump considers providing more Patriot missiles to Ukraine and hopes Putin will end the war. He had a 50 - minute meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky during the NATO summit [17].