铁矿石早报（2025-6-27）-20250627

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose with reduced steel mill hot metal production, high arrival levels this month, increased port inventories, and rumors of crude steel reduction policies. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish due to decreased domestic demand and increased imports, although there are some bullish factors such as spot premium over futures and price above the 20 - day line [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamentals: Steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply arrival this month remains high, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are increasing, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and trade war eases, all being bearish factors [2]. - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 735 with a basis of 30; Qingdao Port Super Special powder spot converted to futures price is 820 with a basis of 114, showing spot premium over futures, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 14433.56 tons, decreasing both on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis, considered neutral [2]. - Market Chart: The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main position of iron ore is net short and short positions are decreasing, being bearish [2]. - Expectation: With decreased domestic demand and increased imports, the market is expected to be volatile and bearish [2]. Bullish Factors - High hot metal production [5]. - Decreased port inventory [5]. - Import losses [5]. Bearish Factors - Increased future shipment volume [5]. - Weak terminal demand [5]. Other Catalogs - Iron Ore Port Spot Price: Not elaborated in the report [7]. - Iron Ore Futures - Spot Basis: Not elaborated in the report [10]. - Iron Ore Import Profit: Not elaborated in the report [12]. - Iron Ore Shipment Volume: Not elaborated in the report [14]. - Iron Ore Port Inventory and Steel Mill Inventory: Not elaborated in the report [16]. - Iron Ore Arrival and Dispatching Volume: Not elaborated in the report [21]. - Iron Ore Daily Consumption: Not elaborated in the report [24]. - Steel Enterprise Production Situation: Not elaborated in the report [26]. - Iron Ore Port Daily Transaction and Steel Mill Daily Hot Metal: Not elaborated in the report [28].