大越期货天胶早报-20250627

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is complex with a mix of positive and negative factors. The fundamentals show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamental situation: Supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is at a high level, overall neutral; Spot price is 13850, basis is - 190, bearish; Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral; The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, bullish; The main position is net short and short positions are decreasing, bearish [4] 3.2 Fundamentals Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level [4][6] - Price: The spot price of 23 - year whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on June 26. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline [6][8] - Inventory: Exchange inventory has changed little recently, and Qingdao area inventory has also changed little recently [14][17] - Import: Import volume has seasonally declined [20] - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32] 3.3 Basis - The basis on June 26 widened [35] 3.4 Multi - Empty Factors - Likely Factors: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - Negative Factors: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6]