大越期货玻璃早报-20250627

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily View - Glass production profit is at a low level, industry cold repair increases,开工率 and output drop to historical lows; deep - processing orders are less than the same period in previous years, terminal demand is weak, and factory inventory continues to accumulate; the basis shows futures are at a discount to spot; inventory is above the 5 - year average; the price is above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward; the main position is net short and short positions increase; it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. Influence Factor Summary - Positive factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low [4]. - Negative factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, the demand is in the seasonal off - season, downstream purchases as needed, and the glass factory inventory continues to accumulate, so it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1016 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10%; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main basis is 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. Cost - Side of Fundamentals - The profit of the coal production line has rebounded, the loss of the natural gas production line has narrowed, and the profit of the petroleum coke production line has turned negative [19]. Production Line and Output - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 224, with an operating rate of 75.57%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period; the daily melting volume is 15.57 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [23][25]. Demand Analysis - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 468.08 tons [29]. Inventory Analysis - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [44]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in production, consumption, and other indicators of float glass, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [45].