建信期货集运指数日报-20250627

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The market has weak expectations for the price increase in July, and it remains to be seen whether other shipping companies will follow the price - hike. Considering the strong resilience of European export demand, stable shipping capacity supply, and the stabilization of quotes and container volumes, the price increase in the peak season is difficult to be falsified in the short - term and may be supported by fundamentals. The 08 contract may be undervalued, while high - short opportunities in the traditional off - season in October are worth attention [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: Shipping companies have announced price increases for early - July freight rates, with quotes ranging from $3860 - $4535, and a median of around $4000. However, Maersk and CMA CGM have lowered their opening prices. The market has weak expectations for the price increase, and it's necessary to observe the implementation in July and other shipping companies' follow - up. The price increase in the peak season may be supported by fundamentals, and the 08 contract may be undervalued, while the 10 - month contract in the traditional off - season offers high - short opportunities [8] 2. Industry News - Geopolitical events: Iran launched a missile attack on a US military base in Qatar. Trump thanked Iran for the advance notice and called for peace. The international oil price dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose. Trump claimed to have "completely destroyed" Iranian nuclear facilities, but Iran said the damage was not as serious. China strongly condemned the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities [9][10] - Shipping market: From June 16 - 20, the Chinese export container shipping market continued to adjust, with more falling than rising freight rates. The European economy is recovering slowly, and the trade prospects are uncertain. The North American economy's recovery is not optimistic due to weak consumer data. Freight rates on various routes have different degrees of decline [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS: The European route's SCFIS increased by 14.1% from June 16 to June 23, while the US - West route's SCFIS decreased by 28.4% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of multiple contracts on June 26 shows different price changes, with the EC2512 contract having the largest increase of 4.12% [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts on global container shipping capacity, container ship orders, and shipping rates between Shanghai and European ports [17][18][21]