建信期货生猪日报-20250627

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The state reserve policy stabilizes pig prices and boosts confidence, and the phased reduction in volume and weight of enterprises continues to support the rebound of spot and futures prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply is expected to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. The current futures contract is at a discount to the spot, and it is still regarded as a rebound, which may be affected by the off - season demand and loose supply - demand in the medium to long term [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 26th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated higher, closing up. The highest was 14,080 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,990 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,040 yuan/ton, up 0.43% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 996 lots to 165,608 lots [8] - Spot Market: On the 26th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.56 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - Demand Side: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening was low, only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait - and - see state, and the support for prices weakened. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On June 26, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 142,100 heads, 1,100 less than the previous day and 4,700 less than a week ago [9] - Supply Side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Currently, enterprises were reducing the volume and weight of slaughter, the volume of large pigs decreased, and the slaughter weight decreased slightly [9] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [10] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% [19] - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous ten - day period [19] - As of the week of June 19, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 128.28 kg, a decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42% [19] - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period. In the week of June 19, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.07 yuan/jin, a 0.01 - yuan/jin increase from the previous week [19]