建信期货铜期货日报-20250627

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Short - term copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen, with attention on the upper pressure level of 80,000 [11] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper has risen for three consecutive days. The tight domestic and foreign spot markets and the warming macro - environment are the main reasons for the recent copper price increase. During the off - season, the domestic social inventory has accumulated slowly, with only 0.05 million tons accumulated this week. The export window is open, and smelters are increasing their export efforts. It is still difficult to accumulate domestic social inventory in the future. Under the tight spot situation, the premium has stopped falling and rebounded, but the continuous rise in copper prices has also narrowed the monthly spread on the disk. The LME market 0 - 3 back has continued to fall to $100/ton, and LME inventory has continued to decline by 400 to 93,075 tons. COMEX inventory has risen to 206,000 short tons. There is a structural shortage of global copper inventory, and this inventory contradiction will continue under the influence of the widening C - L spread [11] 2. Industry News - By the end of May 2025, China's new energy installed capacity has achieved a historic breakthrough: wind power installed capacity has reached 570 million kilowatts, and photovoltaic power installed capacity has reached 1.08 billion kilowatts. The combined proportion of the two in the total installed capacity has risen to 45.7%, surpassing the proportion of thermal power installed capacity for the first time, marking a new stage in the energy structure transformation [12] - According to the latest FedWatch data, the market's bet on the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is 20.7%, which is higher than that of a week ago (12.5%), but the market still expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the July interest - rate meeting with a probability of nearly 80%. Although Fed officials have recently signaled an early interest - rate cut, substantial interest - rate cuts may have to wait until September due to the remaining inflation risks in the US and the resilience of the labor market [12] - With the maturity of generative AI technology and the acceleration of data center construction, the demand for copper cables in short - distance high - speed interconnection scenarios has increased significantly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued the "Action Plan for Computing Power Interconnection", aiming to promote the efficient interconnection of computing power infrastructure. High - speed copper cables, as the core components of short - distance transmission in data centers, are expected to become a key policy - supported direction. Nvidia re - claimed the title of the world's "market - value king" on Wednesday. A Wall Street analyst predicted that Nvidia is about to ride on the "golden wave" of artificial intelligence (AI). The market's optimistic sentiment towards the AI track continues to heat up, boosting the market performance of chip stocks and copper - cable high - speed connection concept stocks [12] - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for the second half of 2025, and the market's re - evaluation of the strategic value of copper resources has indirectly boosted the confidence of the copper - cable high - speed connection industry chain [13]