建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250627

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 26, the J2509 and JM2509 futures contracts of coke and coking coal continued to strengthen, with the JM2509 contract showing a larger increase, recovering most of the losses since May 23 [5]. - Since early June, coke and coking coal futures have rebounded due to a significant decline in coking coal imports and further production cuts by coking plants. However, there may be a divergence in their future market trends. Coke prices may be restricted by the slow production cuts of steel mills and may not have a significant rebound in the medium term, while coking coal prices may be relatively strong driven by the tightening of imports [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 (Market Review and Future Outlook) - Market Review: On June 26, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1395.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86%, with a trading volume of 22,795 lots and a position of 51,299 lots. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 819.5 yuan/ton, up 3.60%, with a trading volume of 870,999 lots and a position of 564,662 lots, an increase of 40,404 lots. The KDJ indicators of the J2509 and JM2509 contracts showed a clear golden cross the previous day and then rose in a divergent manner. The MACD red bars of both contracts continued to expand [5][8]. - Future Outlook: In the coke market, the production of independent coking plants has decreased significantly in the past two weeks, while the production of steel mills has increased. Port coke inventories are hovering near the lowest level since mid - March, and steel mill inventories have declined for seven consecutive weeks, while coking plant inventories have declined for two consecutive weeks from the highest level since early March. Tonnage coke profits have been in the red for five consecutive weeks, and the third round of price cuts for coke spot prices was implemented in early June, with further price cuts proposed in Hebei and Tianjin on June 20. In the coking coal market, the year - on - year growth of imports from January to April turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained high. The inventories of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants have decreased after a significant increase. The inventory of independent coking plants reached a new low since late March, and port inventories are hovering at a low level since early August last year, while steel mill inventories are being depleted slowly. With steel mills still having relatively sufficient inventories, coking plant inventories are low, and coking coal spot prices are relatively resistant to decline [10]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - From June 23 - 24, Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei that efforts should be made to consolidate the stability of the real estate market and promote the innovation and development of high - end equipment manufacturing, intelligent photovoltaics, clean energy, and new materials enterprises [12]. - On June 26, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that as of the end of May, the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power generation in China reached 570 million and 1.08 billion kilowatts respectively, accounting for 45.7% of the total installed capacity, exceeding that of thermal power. It is estimated that the maximum power load during the peak summer period this year will increase by about 100 million kilowatts year - on - year. The NDRC has taken a series of measures to enhance power supply capacity, and the power supply and demand situation during the peak summer period this year is better than last year [12]. - On June 25, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported that as of the end of May, more than 80% of the country's crude steel production capacity had completed ultra - low emission transformation, and key projects for 170 million tons of coking and 30 million tons of cement clinker production capacity had completed ultra - low emission transformation [13]. - According to pre - disclosure information from Shandong Property Exchange Center, Jigang International Logistics Co., Ltd. is挂牌转让60% of the state - owned equity and creditor's rights of Shandong Baode Coal Co., Ltd. [13]. - Fujian Sansteel Minguang Co., Ltd. stated that in 2024, the company organized production and sales based on market benefits. The unit gross profit and sales volume were the lowest in the third quarter and the highest in the fourth quarter. From January to May 2025, the steel market continued the trend of the fourth quarter of 2024, and steel enterprises maintained a certain profit margin. In 2024, the company's iron ore procurement price decreased by 5.61% year - on - year, coking coal by 12.38%, coke by 14.73%, and the comprehensive steel sales price by 9.41% [13]. - On June 26, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.62 million tons, up 0.54% from the previous day, down 2.26% from the previous week, and down 20.28% from the same period last month [13]. - On June 23, the 2 unit of the 2×1000 MW ultra - supercritical coal - fired power unit of Shandong Energy New Energy Group Lingtai Power Plant was successfully connected to the grid. The project is expected to generate 10 billion kWh of electricity annually after the first - phase two units are put into operation, effectively alleviating the power supply and demand pressure in Shandong during the 14th Five - Year Plan period [14]. - On June 26, the Gansu - Ningxia section of the West - East Gas Pipeline Project IV was successfully put into operation, making the entire pipeline fully operational. The project has an annual gas transmission capacity of 15 billion cubic meters, equivalent to replacing more than 27 million tons of standard coal and reducing carbon emissions by about 50 million tons [14]. - Xiangcai Securities stated that since the beginning of 2025, the coal industry has undergone a reshaping of the supply - demand pattern, and the coal price center has accelerated its decline. Due to the continuous decline in coal prices, some coal mines have cut production. With the approaching of the peak summer period, coal prices are expected to gradually recover [14]. - Dayou Energy's subsidiary, Yima Coal Industry Group Mengjin Coal Mine Co., Ltd., resumed production on June 23 after an accident - related shutdown on May 15 [14]. - As of June 23, Ningxia Coal Industry had completed a "coal transportation from Xinjiang to Ningxia" volume of over 1.5 million tons, an increase of 896,400 tons compared to the same period last year, reaching a record high [14]. - On June 25, the first train of 3,328 tons of Mongolian coal from the Sino - Mongolian cross - border railway, coal trade, and coal mine capacity expansion project departed from the Tavantolgoi Station of the Mongolian Railway Company, marking a solid step in the implementation of the coal trade long - term agreement [14]. - Russia is open to increasing production again at the next OPEC+ meeting if necessary. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [15]. - In May 2025, Russia's coal production was 34.709 million tons, down 3.8% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year. From January to May, the cumulative coal production was 180 million tons, up 1.6% year - on - year [15]. - India's coal production is expected to reach a peak of 1.53 billion tons by 2030. In the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year, India's coal production exceeded 1 billion tons for the first time, reaching 1.048 billion tons, a 5% increase from the previous fiscal year. In the first two months of this fiscal year (April - May 2025), the total coal production was 168 million tons, a 3.45% year - on - year increase [15]. - Japan may face a severe power supply crisis in 2050 if power demand surges, aging thermal power plants are not replaced, and nuclear power plants are decommissioned as scheduled. It is estimated that Japan's power demand will increase by 2 - 25% in 2040 and 8 - 42% in 2050 compared to before the COVID - 19 pandemic in 2019 [15]. - South Africa's Thungela Resources expects its coal production in the first half of 2025 to reach 6.4 million tons, slightly higher than 6.2 million tons in the same period last year [15]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The report provides a series of data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the spot aggregated price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants, the production and capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke, the national daily average hot metal production, the coke inventories of ports/steel mills/coking plants, the tonnage coke profit of independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants, the coking coal inventories of ports/coking plants/steel mills, and the basis between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the September contract, and the basis between Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the September contract [17][18][19].