燃料油早报-20250627

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoint - This week, the high - sulfur cracking was volatile, with crude oil rising significantly. High - sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in oil product profits. The 380 - cst monthly spread was volatile, at $7.5 for the 8 - 9 month spread, and the basis was also volatile. The domestic and foreign spreads of FU showed differentiation between near and far months. The 07 contract dropped to around -$7 (with expected large delivery volume), and the 09 contract fluctuated around $8. The 0.5 - cst cracking in Singapore declined, and the monthly spread was volatile. This week, Singapore's land inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased, low - sulfur floating storage increased, ARA's inventory decreased, floating storage inventory was volatile, and the US inventory decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, being moderately high compared to the same period, while Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq accounted for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high - sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia - Pacific region and not eligible for physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future due to US sanctions, and if the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact will be greater. Recently, high - sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power - generation season, with the overseas market operating strongly. The domestic and foreign near - month contracts of FU are under pressure, with low valuation and continued gaming. For far - month contracts, attention should be paid to the impact of supply disruptions. The domestic and foreign valuations of LU are high [6][7]. 2. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from 2025/06/20 - 2025/06/26 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF Swap M1 | -0.89 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 | 5.33 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -0.75 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 7.43 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -2.10 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 0.92 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 6.22 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from 2025/06/20 - 2025/06/26 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 2.38 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 2.16 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | -3.21 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | -0.81 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 0.89 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | 2.78 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change from 2025/06/20 - 2025/06/26 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 3.56 | | FOB VLSFO | -4.12 | | 380 - cst Basis | 2.60 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | -1.3 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | -6.1 | [5] Domestic FU and LU Contract Data | Contract | Change from 2025/06/20 - 2025/06/26 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -11 | | FU 05 | -2 | | FU 09 | 4 | | FU 01 - 05 | -9 | | FU 05 - 09 | -6 | | FU 09 - 01 | 15 | | LU 01 | -9 | | LU 05 | 0 | | LU 09 | -16 | | LU 01 - 05 | -9 | | LU 05 - 09 | 16 | | LU 09 - 01 | -7 | [5][6]