大越期货沥青期货早报-20250627

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in June 2025 is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the capacity utilization rate decreased, and refineries reduced production, but there may be increased supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt have low or decreased operating rates, while the waterproofing membrane operating rate has increased [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - The refinery's recent production cut has reduced supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously decreasing. Crude oil is weakening, and cost support is weakening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating between 3528 - 3598 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In June 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the capacity utilization rate is 32.1788%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 537,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.18%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 741,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. Refineries have reduced production this week, but there may be increased supply pressure next week [8]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate is 30.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the building asphalt operating rate is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt operating rate is 14.0559%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt operating rate is 22.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane operating rate is 45%, a month - on - month increase of 13.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's production cut has reduced supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously decreasing. Crude oil is weakening, and cost support is weakening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating between 3528 - 3598 [10]. - Leverage and Inventory: On June 26, the spot price in Shandong is 3805 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 242 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory is 1.353 million tons, unchanged from the previous month; the factory inventory is 746,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.57% [11]. - Market Conditions: The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The bullish factor is that the relative high price of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14][15]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Conditions - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis, which can help investors understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices [20]. - Spread Analysis: - Main Contract Spread: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads are shown, which is useful for analyzing the price differences between different contracts [23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil are presented, helping to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) are shown, which is important for analyzing the refining profit margins [28]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio: The historical price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil are presented, which can help in relative - value analysis [32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Conditions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, which can help in understanding the spot - market price movements [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The historical trends of asphalt profit are presented, which can help in understanding the profitability of asphalt production [37]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread: The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread are shown, which is important for analyzing the profit - distribution between coking and asphalt production [40]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt are presented, which can help in understanding the supply - side sales situation [44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory are shown, which can help in understanding the supply - side raw - material inventory [46]. - Production Volume: The historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt are presented, which can help in understanding the supply - side production levels [49]. - Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production: The historical trends of Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production are shown, which can help in understanding the supply - side raw - material situation [53]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The historical trends of local refinery asphalt production are presented, which can help in understanding the supply - side production structure [56]. - Operating Rate: The historical weekly operating rates of asphalt are presented, which can help in understanding the supply - side production activity [59]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The historical trends of maintenance loss estimation are shown, which can help in understanding the supply - side production interruptions [61]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) are presented, which can help in understanding the inventory situation in the futures market [64]. - Social and Factory Inventory: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) are presented, which can help in understanding the overall inventory situation [68]. - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio are presented, which can help in understanding the factory's inventory management [71]. - Import and Export Analysis: The historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread from South Korea are presented, which can help in understanding the international - trade situation of asphalt [74]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: The historical trends of petroleum coke production are presented, which can help in understanding the demand - side related - product production [80]. - Apparent Consumption: The historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption are presented, which can help in understanding the overall demand situation [83]. - Downstream Demand: - Infrastructure - Related Demand: The historical trends of highway - construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special - purpose bonds, and infrastructure investment completion are presented, which can help in understanding the infrastructure - related demand for asphalt [86]. - Mechanical Equipment Demand: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales are presented, which can help in understanding the downstream mechanical - equipment demand for asphalt - related projects [90]. - Asphalt Operating Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate: The historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate are presented, which can help in understanding the demand - side consumption of heavy - traffic asphalt [95]. - Asphalt Operating Rate by Use: The historical trends of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt operating rates are presented, which can help in understanding the demand - side consumption of different types of asphalt [98]. - Downstream Operating Conditions: The historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt operating rates are presented, which can help in understanding the demand - side consumption in different downstream industries [99]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to June 2025 are presented, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which can help in comprehensively understanding the supply - demand situation [104].