大越期货豆粕早报-20250627

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Soybean Meal: The U.S. soybean market is experiencing a decline due to favorable weather in the main production areas and technical adjustments. In the short - term, it will fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance from China - U.S. tariff negotiations and the growth weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market has also declined, affected by the U.S. soybean market and technical adjustments. With an increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices, the upward movement of the futures price is restricted, and it will return to a range - bound pattern. The expected trading range for M2509 is between 2900 and 2960 [8]. - For Soybeans: The U.S. soybean market is in a downward trend with short - term fluctuations above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean market has declined, influenced by the U.S. market, while the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports price expectations. In the short - term, it will be affected by the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans. The expected trading range for A2509 is between 4100 and 4200 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Soybean Meal: Market is neutral, with a bearish basis, a bullish inventory situation, a neutral position on the 20 - day moving average, and a bullish outlook for the main position. It is expected to trade in the range of 2900 - 2960 [8]. - Soybeans: Market is neutral, with a bullish basis, a bearish inventory situation, a neutral position on the 20 - day moving average, and a bearish outlook for the main position. It is expected to trade in the range of 4100 - 4200 [10]. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement in China - U.S. tariff negotiations is beneficial for U.S. soybeans, but favorable weather in U.S. soybean - growing areas has led to a short - term decline after a rally. In the future, it awaits further guidance from soybean planting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May, and the domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level after May Day, while the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to a volatile pattern due to the conclusion of the China - U.S. tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day. However, the tight supply supports the post - holiday price of soybean meal. With the weakening pressure of the China - U.S. tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a weakly - volatile pattern in the short - term. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills and the relatively strong spot price support short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in U.S. soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - U.S. tariff war still exist. The soybean meal market will remain volatile in the short - term, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - U.S. tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Soybean Meal Bullish Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas [13]. - Soybean Meal Bearish Factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans continues after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. - Soybean Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - Soybean Bearish Factors: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From June 17th to 26th, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small - scale fluctuations [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From June 17th to 26th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed a downward trend [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts: From June 13th to 26th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean 1 and soybean 2) and soybean meal changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - Soybean Meal Spot Prices: The soybean meal futures market is in a relatively strong and volatile state, while the spot market has been relatively weak after May Day, and the discount has slightly widened [22]. - Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: Global and domestic soybean supply and demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including information on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [30][31]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided specifically for position data other than the general description of main positions in the viewpoints and strategies section. Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of U.S. soybeans has increased compared to the previous week but decreased compared to the same period last year [41]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, while the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase [43]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, indicating a weakening of long - term procurement demand [45]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, but the soybean meal output in April decreased year - on - year [46]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has slightly increased, and the profit margin of imported soybean futures has slightly narrowed [48]. - The inventory of live pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [50]. - The prices of live pigs and piglets have slightly declined [52]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs has slightly increased [54]. - The domestic pig - farming profit has declined to a relatively low level [56].