大越期货菜粕早报-20250627

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. It is currently affected by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a short - term rise followed by a fall. With the influence of soybean meal, its price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market [11]. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future outcome uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish Factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish Factors: The increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. - Current Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [24][25]. - Price and Transaction Data: From June 17 - 26, the average transaction price of soybean meal decreased from 2994 yuan/ton to 2889 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2600 yuan/ton to 2500 yuan/ton. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [13]. - Inventory Data: Rapeseed meal inventory was 1.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.93% [9]. - Aquaculture Data: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [39]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal is affected by soybean meal and technical oscillations. Low oil mill operation and low inventory support the market. Short - term demand is in the peak season, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased, short - term inventory pressure is low, making the short - term market oscillate strongly [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2500 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory has decreased significantly compared to the previous week and the same period last year [9]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards [9]. - Main Position: The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580 in the short term [9].