永安期货有色早报-20250627

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, recognize the short - term support of structural squeeze on absolute prices, but focus on three potential changes in the copper fundamentals in the third quarter: S232 survey results may land in July, after which prices may peak and fall; US copper inventory may flow back globally at about 60,000 tons per month; there are expectations of weaker performance in some sectors in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, pay attention to demand, and consider far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage under the low - inventory pattern [1]. - For zinc, maintain the idea of short - allocation, hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [2][3]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. - For stainless steel, the short - term is expected to be weak and volatile [6]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,100 next week, with supply in June expected to be flat and demand weak [8]. - For tin, short - term long - allocation can be held cautiously, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [10]. - For industrial silicon, the spot price will be under pressure in the future, and in the long - run, it will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [14]. - For lithium carbonate, in the medium - long term, the price will be weak and volatile if the leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises' operating rates do not decline significantly; in the short - term, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, putting pressure on prices [16]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 20 - 26, the spot price changed by 40, the warehouse receipt changed by 2226, and the LME inventory decreased by 400 tons. The LME cash - 3m spread exceeded 200 US dollars, but the 3m futures price did not rise [1]. - Market Situation: The market is in a state of long - short stalemate. The S232 survey may land in July, and after that, the price and the squeeze situation may change. The US copper inventory may flow back globally, and some sectors in the third quarter may see weaker performance [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 20 - 26, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price changed by 80, and the inventory remained unchanged. The supply increased slightly, and the demand in June was expected to be seasonally weak [1]. - Market Situation: There is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory reduction is gentle from June to July. Pay attention to demand and consider some arbitrage strategies [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. The domestic TC and import TC remained unchanged. The social inventory was oscillating, and the LME inventory decreased slightly [2]. - Market Situation: Supply increased in June, domestic demand weakened marginally, and overseas demand was weak. The inventory accumulation acceleration inflection point is expected to appear at the end of June [2][3]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: The price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained at 60.0. The domestic inventory decreased slightly, and the LME premium strengthened slightly [3][5]. - Market Situation: The supply of pure nickel remained high, and the demand was weak. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: The prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, etc. remained mostly unchanged, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [6]. - Market Situation: The supply decreased due to some steel mills' production cuts, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the cost remained stable. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [6]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: The lead price rebounded from a low level. The supply - side had some problems, and the demand - side was weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,100 next week [8]. - Market Situation: The supply - side had issues such as low scrap volume and high - cost recycling. The demand - side had high battery inventory and weak consumption [8]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: The tin price fluctuated widely. The LME inventory decreased slightly. The domestic production decreased in June, and the overseas supply disturbances basically subsided [9][10]. - Market Situation: The domestic raw material supply was disturbed, and the demand was expected to decline. It is in a state of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year [10]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: The basis strengthened rapidly, and the warehouse receipts and non - standard products were removed quickly. The spot price was strong, but it is expected to be under pressure in the future [13][14]. - Market Situation: The overall market operation rate increased slightly. The price will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - run [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: The price decreased this week. The spot premium widened the month - spread, and the basis weakened. The inventory accumulated this week [16]. - Market Situation: In the medium - long term, the price will be weak and volatile if the leading enterprises' operating rates do not decline significantly. In the short - term, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory and face price pressure [16].