广发期货《有色》日报-20250627

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to interest - rate cut expectations and CL spread drivers, but weak macro - expectations limit the upside. The reference range for the main contract is 78,000 - 81,000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150. It is recommended to arrange short positions at high levels in the medium - to - long term. Aluminum prices are supported by the macro - environment, low inventory, and high aluminum - water ratio, but the consumption off - season restricts the upside. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at high levels [4]. Zinc - Short - term overseas interest - rate cut expectations boost zinc prices, but downstream acceptance is low after the price increase. In the medium - to - long term, a rebound - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel futures market is expected to adjust weakly within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 124,000. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market fundamentals are weak. The supply is high, demand is soft, and inventory reduction is slow. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 13,000 [11]. Tin - Short - term tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to tight supply, but pessimistic demand expectations prevail. A strategy of shorting at high levels based on supply - side recovery and inventory inflection points is recommended [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply is sufficient, and demand is stable but hard to boost. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 58,000 - 62,000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 78,940 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 35 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month; imports were 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,610 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,260 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [7]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 121,650 yuan/ton, up 1.76% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,900 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in May was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [9]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12,700 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton to 235 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production in April (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [11]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price rose to 265,800 yuan/ton, up 1.41% from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 750 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 60,600 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate premium decreased by 220 yuan/ton to - 480 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month; demand was 83,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [17].