广发期货《黑色》日报-20250627

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For steel, the current situation is a low-demand season with cost drag and weak demand expectations. There may be a short - term rebound due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, but it is still recommended to take a bearish approach on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - For iron ore, it may be stable and slightly strong in the short term, with the June average hot - metal output expected to stay above 2.4 million tons. However, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 690 - 740 [4]. - For coke, the futures are in an upward - trending oscillation, and the spot is stable. It is recommended to hedge the 2509 contract on rebounds, and consider a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage strategy [7]. - For coking coal, the futures are rising in an oscillatory manner, and the spot is stable and slightly strong. It is recommended to buy the 2509 contract on dips and consider a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage strategy [7]. Summary by Directory Steel - Price and Spread: The prices of some steel products have changed. For example, the spot price of rebar in the South China region increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in the East and North China regions decreased. The 05 contract price of hot - rolled coils increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit: The billet price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar remained unchanged. The profit of East China rebar decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Production: The daily average hot - metal output decreased slightly, while the output of five major steel products increased by 1.4%. The rebar output increased by 2.7%, with the electric - arc furnace output increasing by 6.8% [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly, the rebar inventory decreased by 0.4%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.3% [1]. - Trading and Demand: The building materials trading volume increased by 6.2%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.5%, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 0.3% [1]. Iron Ore - Price and Spread: The prices of some iron ore varieties remained unchanged, and the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 57.4% [4]. - Supply: The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 7.5% week - on - week, and the global shipment volume increased by 4.6%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% [4]. - Demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased slightly, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume increased by 4.1%, and the national pig iron monthly output increased by 2.1% [4]. - Inventory: The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.5%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Spread: The coke 09 contract increased by 0.6%, and the coking coal 09 contract increased by 1.94%. The coking profit decreased, and the sample coal mine profit decreased by 7.5% [7]. - Supply: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3%, and the raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 1.1% [7]. - Demand: The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and the demand for coke decreased [7]. - Inventory: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.3%, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.7% [7].