瑞银：中国经济评论-5 月增长喜忧参半，财政状况趋缓；6 月房屋销售疲软

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The economic data for May indicates mixed growth, with retail sales increasing by 6.4% YoY, while property activity continues to decline [2][3] - Home sales in June showed a further decline of 9% YoY in 30 cities, with tier 1 cities down 4% YoY and tier 2 cities down 12% YoY [1][11] - Port activities have softened, with cargo throughput declining by 1% YoY in early June [1][15] - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) improved by 8% WoW, while the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) declined by 10% WoW [1][9] - Auto retail sales growth picked up to 20% YoY in the first 15 days of June, up from 13% YoY in May [1][8] Economic Performance - General fiscal revenue growth softened to 0.1% YoY in May, while fiscal expenditure growth moderated to 2.6% YoY [3][25] - Local land sale revenue decreased significantly by 14.6% YoY in May, reflecting ongoing weakness in the land market [3][26] - Infrastructure investment remained resilient at 9.3% YoY, while manufacturing fixed asset investment (FAI) growth edged down to 7.8% YoY [2][23] Policy Developments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced new measures to open up the financial market, including establishing a digital RMB international operation center and supporting Shanghai's position as an international financial center [4] Future Outlook - Expectations for Q2 growth remain robust at 4.5-5% YoY, driven by front-loading of exports and policy stimulus [6] - Anticipated additional fiscal stimulus of 0.5-1ppt of GDP is expected to support growth in the latter half of 2025 [6]