摩根士丹利：日本能源政策与人工智能供电

Investment Rating - Industry view is rated as In-Line [1] Core Insights - The Japanese government's 7th Strategic Energy Plan was released in February 2025, aiming to increase energy self-sufficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions [6][7] - Long-term electricity demand is expected to grow due to the construction of new AI data centers [6] - The government plans to increase the share of electricity generated from renewable and nuclear sources [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Japanese Government's 7th Strategic Energy Plan - Energy self-sufficiency rate is projected to rise from 15.2% in F3/24 to approximately 30-40% by F3/41 [7] - Electricity output is expected to increase from 985.4 billion kWh in F3/24 to approximately 1.1-1.2 trillion kWh by F3/41 [7] - Final energy consumption is forecasted to decrease from 300 million kiloliters in F3/24 to approximately 260-270 million kiloliters by F3/41 [7] - Greenhouse gas emissions are targeted to be reduced by 73% compared to F3/14 by F3/41 [7] Outlook on Energy Supply and Demand - The share of renewables in the energy mix is expected to increase from 22.9% in F3/24 to approximately 40-50% by F3/41 [9] - Nuclear energy's share is projected to rise from 8.5% in F3/24 to around 20% by F3/41 [9] - Thermal energy's share is expected to decrease from 68.6% in F3/24 to approximately 30-40% by F3/41 [9] Projected Electricity Demand - The demand from new data centers is projected to rise significantly, with peak electricity demand expected to increase from 0.5 GW in F3/26 to 6.2 GW by F3/34 [24][28] Power Generation by Energy Source - Total power generation in F3/24 was 987.7 TWh, with coal contributing 280.0 TWh, natural gas 324.8 TWh, and nuclear power 84.1 TWh [29] - Renewable energy generation was 226.1 TWh, with solar power at 96.5 TWh and wind power at 10.5 TWh [29] Status of Nuclear Power Plants - As of March 2025, 33 nuclear plants have a total capacity of 33,083 MW, with 13,245 MW already restarted [31] Renewable Energy Introduction - Cumulative installed capacity for solar power reached 75,129 MW, while wind power reached 16,802 MW as of the end of December 2024 [32]