摩根士丹利：小米-SU7 Ultra 开启小米豪华之旅

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Xiaomi Corp with a price target raised to HK$62.00, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current share price of HK$50.80 [7]. Core Insights - The launch of the SU7 Ultra marks the beginning of Xiaomi's luxury car journey, with expectations for significant growth in its EV segment, particularly with the upcoming YU7 model [3][4]. - Xiaomi's revenue is projected to exceed Rmb1 trillion by 2030, driven by its dual growth engines: the EV and Smartphone+AIoT+Internet divisions, with net profit expected to surpass Rmb100 billion [2][9]. - The report highlights Xiaomi's strong market position in the AIoT and smartphone sectors, with anticipated revenue growth from innovative product launches and improved product mix [5][11]. Summary by Sections Price Target and Market Outlook - The price target for Xiaomi has been increased from HK$45.00 to HK$62.00, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [1]. - The analysis suggests that Xiaomi's share price could exceed HK$100 before 2030, supported by robust revenue and profit growth [2][9]. EV Business Development - The SU7 Ultra's launch is seen as a pivotal moment for Xiaomi, enhancing its brand equity and market share in the luxury segment [3][31]. - The report raises volume forecasts for EV sales to 370,000 units in 2025 and 750,000 units in 2026, with an increase in average selling price (ASP) from Rmb245,000 to Rmb250,000 in 2025 [60][53]. - Cumulative EV gross profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards from Rmb48.1 billion to Rmb67.6 billion [57]. AIoT and Smartphone Growth - The AIoT division is expected to see solid growth in 2025, driven by innovative product launches and a diversified product mix [64]. - Xiaomi's smartphone segment is experiencing positive momentum, with higher ASPs contributing to margin recovery and improved brand image [77][84]. - The report notes that Xiaomi's market share in China has improved from No. 5 in 2023 to No. 3 in 2024, with continued gains expected in both domestic and international markets [84].