瑞银：2025 年 6 月贵金属展望-我们处于周期的哪个阶段？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold, indicating a long-term uptrend is intact with a price forecast increase for 2025E from $2900 to $3100, representing a 7% change [53]. Core Insights - Gold's recent rally to record highs was orderly and well anticipated, with expectations of continued consolidation in the near term, supported by strong buying interest during pullbacks [4][5]. - Gold has outperformed other asset classes year-to-date due to elevated macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff risks, acting as a safe-haven asset [5][15]. - The report highlights that gold remains under-owned, suggesting potential for increased allocations by investors [4]. Summary by Sections Gold Market Dynamics - Futures trading volumes and open interest have been declining as prices consolidate within a narrow range, with global ETFs increasing approximately 10 million ounces year-to-date, although inflows have recently stalled [10]. - Gold's spot premium over fair value remains at record highs, indicating a breakdown in macro correlations [13]. - Speculative net long positions in gold appear lean, with broader market positioning remaining low compared to previous periods of rising gold prices [18][20]. Demand and Supply Factors - Physical demand for gold is supported by investment interest, with net buying continuing albeit at a slower pace [25][33]. - The report notes a gradual slowdown in official sector buying, but new buyers in 2024 have helped offset slower purchases from others [28][29]. - Consumer demand for gold in India is expected to remain resilient, with outstanding gold loans growing [46]. Price Forecasts - UBS forecasts for gold prices show an upward trend, with projections for 2026E increasing from $2900 to $3500, a 21% change, and for 2027E from $2700 to $3250, a 20% change [53]. - The report also indicates upside risks to investment, particularly in China, where gold ETFs have seen significant inflows amid strong bullish sentiment [37]. White Metals Outlook - The report suggests that silver and platinum are well-positioned for catch-up trades, with market participants optimistic about platinum due to supply risks in South Africa and potential recovery in jewelry demand in China [55][57]. - Palladium is noted to be vulnerable to interim spikes due to persistent deficits and net shorts [57][85].